Mississippi State handled Arkansas fairly easily when the teams first met at Humphrey Coliseum.
The Bulldogs pulled away in the second half to hand the Razorbacks an 81-68 loss on Dec. 29 in Starkville in the Southeastern Conference opener for both teams.
But when they meet again at 7:30 p.m. Saturday in Fayetteville, plenty will be different — and not in a good way for MSU.
Mississippi State (14-7, 5-3 SEC) will be missing one of its best players. Arkansas (17-5, 6-3 SEC) will have its own star back after he missed the teams’ first matchup. The Bulldogs have yet to win on the road; the Razorbacks have won seven straight games.
All those storylines don’t point to a positive outcome for MSU at Bud Walton Arena, but a lot can happen when the Dawgs and Hogs meet for the second time.
Despite Arkansas’ superior record and KenPom ranking (No. 31 to MSU’s No. 40), the Razorbacks are projected to win by just four points, giving the Bulldogs more than a fighting chance in their fourth SEC road game.
Mississippi State will try to use the recipe for a victory it followed more than a month ago, forcing 17 turnovers and winning the offensive glass. The Bulldogs remain one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country (No. 17) and found success even against an Arkansas team ranked 15th in keeping opponents off the offensive boards.
Tolu time?
Of course, Tolu Smith played in that initial game. The redshirt junior big man had one of his best games against the Razorbacks, scoring 18 points on 5-of-8 shooting in the Bulldogs’ victory.
How Mississippi State fares Saturday might hinge on the availability of Smith, who remains out with a knee injury he suffered Jan. 22 against Ole Miss.
Howland said he hoped to have Smith back by Saturday’s game — two weeks from his injury — but acknowledged it could be longer until Smith retakes the court.
“That’s being optimistic, which I like to be,” Howland said.
Smith has played in just eight of Mississippi State’s 21 games this season because of injuries to both feet and COVID before his current knee sprain.
When he has played, he has been mostly effective, scoring 13.1 points per game and taking down a team-leading 6.6 rebounds per game.
Javian Davis has filled Smith’s shoes when the former Western Kentucky transfer has been absent from the lineup. Davis averages 4.9 points and 3.1 rebounds in 14.9 minutes per game.
But the Bulldogs will certainly hope to get Smith back against the Razorbacks, especially since Arkansas guard JD Notae will play this time around.
Notae ready for Round 2
Mississippi State caught a big break when Notae missed the December matchup because of illness. The dynamic guard averages 19.0 points per game, second in the SEC (MSU’s Iverson Molinar is third at 18.1).
Only 25 players in the country take a higher percentage of shots than does Notae, who like Molinar has scored in double digits in every game this year. But the Razorbacks guard can be efficient: He scored 23 points on 9-of-14 shooting in Wednesday’s 99-73 win at Georgia.
Stanley Umude outshined even Notae in that game, scoring 31 points including a 6-of-8 performance from deep. Umude was Arkansas’ leading scorer with 19 points against Mississippi State.
But his marksmanship in Athens is rare, as Arkansas shoots just 31 percent from 3 on the season, 12th in the SEC and 288th in the country. Consequently, the Hogs take very few 3s.
Arkansas is fairly balanced with the No. 51 offense nationally and the No. 39 defense. Just 11 of the 30 teams ranked above them have a smaller gap between the two units.
Résumé builder
The Razorbacks have shown that equity over the course of their win streak, holding LSU to just 58 points in a big road win but turning up the scoring in games like Wednesday’s. They have won big as well as small: a 87-43 murder of Missouri and a 76-73 overtime squeaker against Texas A&M.
But Arkansas is beatable, and its schedule down the stretch might show that if Mississippi State can’t. After the Bulldogs come to town, six of the Hogs’ final eight games are against top-20 teams in KenPom.
With records and résumés that could be quite similar by the end of the regular season, Saturday’s game could be a big one for both teams’ NCAA tournament cases. Arkansas would extend its win streak to eight and prove it knows how to beat Mississippi State; MSU, meanwhile, could finally notch a road win against a solid opponent with games against Tennessee, LSU and Alabama looming.
So suffice it to say that when the Bulldogs take the court in Fayetteville, there’s quite a bit on the line.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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