STARKVILLE — If Mississippi State wants to rest assured it has an advantage over Louisville in the TaxSlayer Bowl, all it has to do is get the ball into the red zone.
No. 24 MSU (8-4) enters the postseason off one of its best seasons of the Dan Mullen era in red zone offense, scoring on 84.91 percent of its trips and coming away with a touchdown 64.15 percent of the time. Meanwhile, the Louisville defense — led by former MSU defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon — ranks 122nd in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (73.53) and 89th in red zone yards per carry allowed. The two clash in the TaxSlayer Bowl 11 a.m. Dec. 30 (ESPN) at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.
MSU’s red zone offense this season, by scoring percentage and touchdown percentage, is the second-best of the Mullen era, behind the 2015 team. The Dispatch looked at MSU’s red zone numbers in November and found MSU’s improvement can be attributed to more rushing attempts in that area of the field; the data set of the full season confirms that finding.
MSU ran 98 times in the red zone in the regular season for a total of 70 percent of its red zone plays. That’s nearly 10 percent more than each of the last three seasons and would be a Mullen-era high if not for the outlier of the 2010 season, in which MSU ran on 79.28 percent of its red zone plays. Most of Mullen’s red zone offenses fell in the range of running on 59 to 60 percent of its red zone plays.
That dedication shows up in the individual numbers, too: MSU quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and running back Aeris Williams are both in the top 10 in the Southeastern Conference in red zone carries. Williams is third with 40 and Fitzgerald is in seventh with 33; Fitzgerald is only one carry behind the person in sixth (Missouri’s Ish Witter) and five carries behind the person in fifth (LSU’s Darrel Williams), so it’s possible he would have finished in the top five if he could have played the entire Egg Bowl.
MSU interim coach Greg Knox doesn’t see this season’s success there as the product of such a playcalling shift or any other change. He sees it as the fruits of the labor that is the program’s dedication to that part of the field.
“We talk about that a lot with our kids. We have a segment in practice with our kids where it’s nothing but red zone, and we preach getting into the end zone,” Knox said. “I think it’s just our guys executing at a high level down there. I think Nick Fitzgerald did a good job of when we got into the red zone, making sure everybody was locked in.”
Senior left tackle Martinas Rankin said MSU’s red zone period in practice is not different on the surface from any other.
“We rep the plays within that package against different looks. Certain plays we want to get to certain looks, that type of deal,” he said.
In his opinion, the thing that sets MSU apart is the longevity of the exercise.
“It’s not different from any other period, it’s just a whole period. I don’t know if all teams do that, but I know we’re going to have a plan because we have to score in the red zone,” Rankin said. “Red zone defense and red zone offense is such a pivotal part of the game. If you get to the red zone and don’t score, that’s a big deal, that’s a big win for the defense and a huge loss for the offense.”
Follow Dispatch sports writer Brett Hudson on Twitter @Brett_Hudson
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