OXFORD — Ole Miss (8-4, 4-4 Southeastern Conference) will play Texas Tech (7-5, 5-4 Big 12) in the TaxAct Texas Bowl on Dec. 28 in Houston.
It will be the seventh matchup between the two teams and the fourth in postseason play.
Here is a look at what Texas Tech’s offense and defense will look like later this month.
Offensive breakdown
Three different Red Raiders quarterbacks have thrown for at least 1,000 yards and five touchdown passes this season. Tyler Shough missed time with a broken collarbone this season but has started the last three games, all Texas Tech victories. According to the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, head coach Joey McGuire said Shough is likely to start against the Rebels.
Texas Tech ranked 23rd nationally in total offense, averaging 459.5 total yards per game. The Red Raiders also played with pace: they led the nation with 1,006 plays run, an average of just under 84 plays per game. For comparison’s sake, Ole Miss ran 917 plays for an average of 76.4 per game. Texas Tech had five games where it had at least 500 yards of offense, including 599 against Oklahoma in the regular-season finale.
Despite a carousel of quarterbacks, the Red Raiders threw for 307 yards per game, 13th nationally and first in the Big 12. That came with risks, however, as Texas Tech quarterbacks threw 17 interceptions, tied for the fourth-most in the FBS. Shough is the highest rated of the three quarterbacks, with a rating of 75.7, per Pro Football Focus.
The distribution among pass catchers was very balanced, as six different receivers had at least 340 receiving yards this season, led by Jerand Bradley’s 656 yards and five touchdowns. Pass protection has been an issue for the Red Raiders, though — they’re giving up 3.25 sacks per game, one of the worst marks in the country.
Texas Tech was in the middle of the pack nationally in rushing, though SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks each have at least 600 rushing yards this season. Both also have at least 22 receptions. The Red Raiders had just two games where they had 200 rushing yards or more.
The Red Raiders are also superb in the red zone, with a scoring rate of 92 percent, eighth nationally. In 50 red zone tries, Texas Tech has 35 touchdowns and 11 field goals.
Defensive breakdown
When you’re giving up just under 30 points per game, some of the defensive optics aren’t going to be pretty. Texas Tech’s 414.5 yards per game allowed ranks 101st nationally, with rushing and passing defenses both ranking in the 90s. The Red Raiders have also not forced a ton of turnovers, with just 14 this season — an even split of seven fumble recoveries and seven interceptions. The Red Raiders have surrendered 21 passing and 16 rushing touchdowns. Ole Miss has scored 20 passing and 31 rushing touchdowns.
Pro Football Focus grades Texas Tech’s defense out at 76.5, No. 80 nationally. The weakest link in the Red Raiders’ defense is their coverage grade, which ranks 111th overall at 63.6.
Defensive lineman Jaylon Hutchings has a PFF grade of 83.3, which is tied for 38th nationally among interior defenders. He is the Red Raiders’ top-rated full-time defender. Linebacker Tyree Wilson was named first-team all-Big 12. He leads the team with seven sacks and 14 tackles for loss but will not play in the bowl due to a foot injury, the school announced. Cornerback Malik Dunlap was a second-team all-Big 12 selection, finishing the season with 29 tackles, one interception and 11 passes defended.
Much like Ole Miss, Texas Tech doesn’t have a player with double-digit sacks but is in the top-50 nationally in sacks per game, tied for 42nd with 2.42 per game.
Potentially of importance is that Texas Tech is the No. 10 team nationally in fourth-down defense, with opponents converting just nine of 25 attempts (36 percent). The Rebels attempted 28 fourth downs in 12 games in 2022, converting at a rate of just under 54 percent. If that number seems lower than it was a season ago, that’s because it is — Ole Miss led the nation with 49 fourth-down tries in 13 games in 2021, converting at a clip of just over 63 percent.
The Red Raiders also excel in the red zone defensively, giving up scores on 39 of 53 trips (73.6 percent), which is No. 9 in the FBS. The Rebels had their issues converting in the red zone offensively, as their 79.7 percent conversion rate was 100th overall.
You can help your community
Quality, in-depth journalism is essential to a healthy community. The Dispatch brings you the most complete reporting and insightful commentary in the Golden Triangle, but we need your help to continue our efforts. In the past week, our reporters have posted 49 articles to cdispatch.com. Please consider subscribing to our website for only $2.30 per week to help support local journalism and our community.