With so much uncertainty nearly everywhere on the field for Mississippi State this fall, expectations are understandably tempered for the Bulldogs, particularly from outside the program.
MSU has a new head coach, eight new assistants and likely 20 new starters out of 22 combined spots on offense and defense. Change was certainly necessary after a 5-7 campaign and the Bulldogs’ first postseason without a bowl game since 2009 as Zach Arnett — who took over as head coach under unfortunate circumstances following the death of Mike Leach — never seemed fully comfortable in that role and was fired with two games remaining.
Jeff Lebby, like Arnett, is a first-time head coach, but that didn’t stop MSU fans from giving him a hero’s welcome when he arrived at the airport late last November and clanging their cowbells when Lebby declared that the Bulldogs are going to be “a football team that scores a bunch of points.”
MSU may well score a bunch of points — Lebby’s offenses have been effective at his previous stops as offensive coordinator, and he and the coaching staff did have success bringing offensive players out of the transfer portal — but stopping opponents from doing the same could be a tougher matter.
The Bulldogs struggled attracting impact defensive players in the portal to Starkville, and that, combined with the relative inexperience all over the roster, was a big reason why they were ranked 15th out of 16 teams in the Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. With that in mind, here’s what it would take for Lebby’s debut campaign to be considered a success.
Bowl eligibility
Six wins would represent major progress after the step back MSU took in 2023, especially against the SEC schedule the Bulldogs were dealt. Lebby’s team has to play four top-15 teams on the road, including three in the top 10 and two in the top five. Two of MSU’s home conference opponents, Missouri and Texas A&M, are also ranked in the preseason AP poll.
The non-conference slate is manageable, but a late-night kickoff at Arizona State could be dangerous, and a home game the following week against a strong Mid-American Conference team in Toledo is trickier than it might look on the surface.
If the Bulldogs can win their first three non-conference games and pull out a home win over Florida in their SEC opener, they’ll be 4-0 when they head to Austin to battle No. 4 Texas. From there, the path to bowl eligibility is a lot clearer.
Have an offense worth watching — and playing in
The only thing worse than being bad is being both bad and boring, and that’s what MSU’s offense was last year. Beyond being dead last in the SEC in scoring offense, the 2023 Bulldogs were ahead of only Arkansas in their conference in yards per play.
Lebby came in sporting new slogans to match his preferred style of play, such as “Showtime,” “Swag is State” and “Score From Far” among them, and if MSU can create explosive plays, not only can they be more competitive against the tougher opponents on their schedule, they’ll also be more fun to watch.
Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen looked comfortable slinging the ball downfield in the spring game, and the Bulldogs have weapons in their receiving corps who can stretch the field and change the complexion of a game in a hurry. If MSU can show an ability to do that consistently, Lebby’s program becomes that much more appealing to highly-ranked recruits and transfers.
Stay competitive against the best
The Bulldogs were coming off a 4-8 season in 2008 when they fired Sylvester Croom and hired Dan Mullen, coming off two national championships in three years as Florida’s offensive coordinator.
Like Lebby, Mullen had never been a head coach before he was hired in Starkville. Although MSU finished 5-7 in 2009, the Bulldogs were competitive in losses to strong teams like Florida, LSU and Georgia Tech, and closed out the year with an Egg Bowl victory over a nine-win Ole Miss team.
That year laid the groundwork for bigger things in the seasons that followed, and could provide a blueprint for Lebby’s first year in 2024. Even if MSU loses by two scores to teams like Texas and Georgia, fans will be encouraged as long as the Bulldogs make enough noise offensively and hang around for most of the game.
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