Following a home sweep of Auburn and a tight midweek win at Memphis, Mississippi State is off to Vanderbilt this weekend to battle the No. 11 Commodores in a three-game series starting Friday evening.
Vanderbilt (30-11, 10-8 Southeastern Conference), two-time national champions under longtime head coach Tim Corbin, went through a bit of a rough patch early in the non-conference portion of the season but caught fire before the start of SEC play, with impressive wins over Louisiana and Texas. The Commodores have been excellent at home, sweeping both Auburn and Missouri and most recently winning two of three at Hawkins Field against Florida.
Relative to the rest of the conference, Vanderbilt’s offense is in the middle of the pack in most categories, but the Commodores have six starters batting above .300, four of whom have a slugging percentage north of .500. And they have done all that without hitting a ton of home runs — only the Bulldogs and Missouri have hit fewer long balls among SEC teams than Vanderbilt’s 45.
Matthew Polk and Jonathan Vastine are Vanderbilt’s best all-around hitters, with Troy LaNeve sporting the team’s best on-base percentage. RJ Austin and Calvin Hewett are a combined 37-for-42 on stolen base attempts, and as a team the Commodores are second in the SEC behind Kentucky with 75 steals.
Vanderbilt has two dependable starting pitchers, with Carter Holton (6-1, 3.95 ERA in 54 ⅔ innings) the ace of the staff. After a rough outing at Texas A&M on Apr. 13, he was excellent in his last start against Florida, allowing two runs over seven innings and striking out 10 without issuing a walk. Left-hander Bryce Cunningham (5-2, 4.67 ERA in 52 innings) is also coming off a quality start against the Gators.
Ryan Ginther and Brennan Seiber have both been reliable out of the bullpen with four saves apiece, and opponents are hitting below .200 against each of them. Miller Green carries a team-best 1.45 ERA across his 18 2/3 innings of work..
Here are three keys to victory for MSU (27-14, 10-8) as the Bulldogs look to win a series on the road for the first time this season.
Control the running game
Putting runners in motion has been a big part of Vanderbilt’s offensive success this year, but MSU has been better than the SEC average in terms of throwing out would-be base stealers as Johnny Long, Joe Powell and company have thrown out 13 of 45 potential thieves (28.9%). There’s more to baserunning than steals, of course, and the Bulldogs do have strong outfield arms in Dakota Jordan and Connor Hujsak, which could prevent the Commodores from taking extra bases.
Score early
Vanderbilt has as many quality high-leverage bullpen arms as anyone in the SEC, so MSU would do well to jump on the Commodores’ starters. The Bulldogs struggled to score in the early innings against Auburn, but if their right-handed slugging outfielders — Jordan, Hujsak and Bryce Chance — can take advantage of the high wall in left field that stands just 310 feet from home plate in the corner, it would go a long way toward giving their pitchers leads to protect.
Piece together the middle game
Likely due to his last start coming Sunday as part of a doubleheader, Jurrangelo Cijntje will start the final game this weekend rather than Saturday, with Khal Stephen making the Friday night start. Unless Nate Dohm is ready to go, MSU will need to get through Saturday’s game with the bullpen. The Bulldogs did well in that scenario last weekend against Auburn, but that was just a seven-inning game. Another lengthy outing from Stephen would help preserve MSU’s top relief arms, like Cam Scheulke, Tyler Davis and Tyson Hardin, for that middle game of the series.
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