After an ugly 41-17 loss to Toledo last weekend, Mississippi State opens Southeastern Conference play Saturday at home against Florida for an 11 a.m. kickoff on ESPN.
The Gators have three national championships to their name in the last 30 years, but are in a bit of a recent rut that has continued into 2024. Florida dropped its season opener against a strong Miami team, defeated Samford in Week 2 and then lost its first conference game to Texas A&M. Billy Napier, in his third year as the Gators’ head coach, is squarely on the hot seat as he has yet to lead Florida to a winning season.
What: Florida at Mississippi State
When: 11 a.m. Saturday
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville
TV: ESPN
Betting line: Florida by 6
Weather: Sunny with a high of 84 degrees and winds out of the north-northeast at 2 miles per hour, per AccuWeather
Records/rankings: Both teams are 1-2 overall, with the Gators coming in at 0-1 in SEC play. Neither team is ranked or receiving votes in either the AP Top 25 or the AFCA Coaches Poll.
Series history: Florida leads 34-19 with two ties. The teams have met just once in the last 13 years — a 13-6 Gators victory in Starkville in 2018 when Dan Mullen defeated his former team.
Mississippi State update: The Bulldogs looked a real mess on both sides of the ball in last week’s blowout loss against the Rockets, and they paid Toledo $1.2 million for the privilege. MSU was pushed around in the trenches — quarterback Blake Shapen’s pocket frequently collapsed, while Toledo’s Tucker Gleason had as much time as he needed to throw the ball.
On the injury front, cornerback Kelley Jones was out last week, as were defensive lineman Kalvin Dinkins, safety Corey Ellington and wide receiver Stonka Burnside. Deonte Anderson made his return after missing the Arizona State game the previous week, and Jones and Dinkins were both listed on this week’s depth chart.
Florida update: The Gators started veteran quarterback Graham Mertz, formerly of Wisconsin, in their opener against Miami, but after he struggled, Florida turned to true freshman DJ Lagway in the Samford game. Lagway was outstanding, throwing for 456 yards on just 18 completions that day, but against the Aggies last week, the Gators alternated between the two quarterbacks, with Mertz putting up better numbers.
Florida’s leading rusher, Montrell Johnson Jr., had minus-7 yards against Texas A&M on seven carries as the Gators had to throw the ball most of the time after falling behind. They have a trio of solid wide receivers, an above-average offensive line and a strong linebacking corps, but are thin on depth in the secondary, which could give MSU’s receivers some opportunities for big plays.
Florida players to watch: QBs Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway, WR Elijhah Badger, DL Tyreak Sapp, DB Jordan Cassell.
Prediction: Both teams are a mess right now, but the Gators are a more talented mess, and Miami and Texas A&M are better teams than Arizona State and Toledo. Florida 31, Mississippi State 20.
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