STARKVILLE — Mississippi State is the only team in the Southeastern Conference that has never hosted an NCAA regional, and the Bulldogs have spent most of this season trying to knock down that door.
But as MSU heads to Athens, Georgia, this week for the SEC Tournament, the Bulldogs (37-16, 13-11) remain on the outside looking in when it comes to the hosting picture, according to nearly all the metrics and projections. Hosting is still in play, but MSU will need some wins and some help to earn a top-16 national seed.
The No. 8 seed Bulldogs are 22nd in the RPI as of Tuesday morning, although a couple of the teams ahead of them — most notably Auburn, which finished 6-18 in SEC play — have no real shot of hosting. MSU will play LSU in the second round this morning, meaning Raelin Chaffin is likely to pitch against her former team for the first time. With a loss, the Bulldogs will be locked in as a regional 2-seed.
Beating the Tigers, though, would give MSU another coveted top-10 win. LSU, despite finishing just 12-12 in conference play, is fourth in the RPI after performing well against a strong non-conference schedule. If the Bulldogs win today, they will face top-seeded Oklahoma on Thursday, and a win over the four-time defending national champions would put them in excellent shape to host.
The case for Mississippi State hosting
MSU has a lot of compelling arguments in its favor. The Bulldogs finished above .500 in what is probably the strongest conference in college softball history, and their 11 Quadrant 1 wins (against the RPI top 25) are more than any team outside the top 10. For reference, Oklahoma State has six, Texas Tech has seven, Oregon six, Virginia Tech seven and Stanford just four.
Just two of those are top-10 wins (one against Texas and one against Tennessee), which the selection committee has started to prioritize the last couple of years, but MSU’s path this week involves LSU (No. 4), Oklahoma (No. 5) and then likely either Arkansas (No. 8) or Tennessee (No. 10) if it can keep winning. It’s a good draw for resume-boosting purposes.
Beating Ole Miss twice last weekend gave the Bulldogs two more top-25 wins, and MSU also has seven wins against teams ranked 26-50 in the RPI. Early-season wins over Texas Tech and Nebraska have aged well, and the two road wins in March over Northwestern look considerably better now than they did a week ago.
The selection committee does not usually take venues and attendance figures into account, but head coach Samantha Ricketts pointed out that the Bulldogs would score highly there as well. The two largest regular-season crowds in Nusz Park history have both come this season.
“What we’ve done all season long, just the consistency, 11 Quad 1 wins against the top-25, the best teams in the country… it just shows the competitiveness that we have,” Ricketts said. “The fact that we can go up against anyone in the country, and the crowds that we’ve shown that we can bring in too and the support for softball is something that would be really special for us to be able to bring that to Starkville.”
The case against Mississippi State hosting
How much can one loss drag a team down? MSU might be about to find out. Back on Mar. 2, the Bulldogs lost 5-0 at home to Northwestern State in the final game of the Bulldog Invitational. It was a bad loss at the time and it has not gotten any better. The Demons are 7-43 overall and checked in at No. 281 in Tuesday’s RPI update. When it comes to the top 16 seeds, the margins are very small, and a result like that can really weigh down a resume.
MSU also has a loss to Middle Tennessee, currently at No. 101, so if the Blue Raiders could move up just one spot, it would lessen the impact of that result. The loss to Jacksonville State (No. 82) does not help either. None of the other contenders for the last few hosting spots have a loss outside the top 150.
Outside of the first weekend, the Bulldogs’ early-season schedule is also not doing them any favors. Their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked 118th, worse than any of the other teams on the host bubble except Oregon, which is 47-6 overall. The committee likes to look at the overall body of work, but those losses in February and early March matter just as much as MSU’s impressive showing against the SEC.
The path forward
If the Bulldogs beat LSU and Oklahoma, it would be hard not to give them a national seed. But if they beat the Tigers and lose to the Sooners, they will need some help. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech losing in the Big 12 Tournament would help, as would Virginia Tech getting knocked out early in the ACC and Oregon in the Big Ten. The Hokies beating Florida State in the regular-season finale was huge for their chances, thereby hurting MSU.
Stanford is an interesting case study because the Cardinal have the RPI to host, but can’t because they are playing in Stanford’s football stadium this year while their softball stadium undergoes renovations. The committee may not want to create the headache of awarding the Cardinal a national seed but sending them on the road, where the 2-seed in that regional would presumably host.
“We know there are a lot of really good programs out there who are fighting for this opportunity,” Ricketts said. “If we’re given the chance, it’s something that would be really special. If not, we’re going to be a real tough 2-seed somewhere.”
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