STARKVILLE — There’s a reason Joe Moorhead mentions explosive plays as much as he does and tracks them so extensively. His experience — and some numbers he’s seen in the advanced statistics world — suggest they impact winning more than most.
In the face of offensive struggles unlike any other in his career, Mississippi State’s coach looks to creating more of them for the way out.
“We’re running the ball very well and we need to find a way to create more explosive plays in addition to the ones we’re doing in the run game with the pass game,” Moorhead said.
On the surface, this week’s matchup with No. 16 Texas A&M (5-2, 3-1 Southeastern Conference) is a battle between an offense that hasn’t been creating explosive plays recently and a defense that has allowed a few too many. Something must give.
Moorhead said earlier in the season his system doesn’t require players to break the system to create big plays, and MSU (4-3, 1-3 SEC) needs that to show up 6 p.m. Saturday (ESPN) more than ever.
“We continually harp to our guys that they don’t have to do anything extraordinary, they just have to do the ordinary things extraordinarily well,” Moorhead said in September. “They don’t have to quote-unquote make a big play, they can do those things within the structure of our system.”
Moorhead’s definition of an explosive play is a run of 12 yards or more or a pass of 15 yards or more. He wants to win the explosive play battle by generating more than the opponent does, but from a self-evaluation standpoint, he wants to the offense to have explosive plays on more than 16 percent of its snaps and the defense to allow explosive plays on fewer than 10 percent. Moorhead said those numbers are based in College Football Focus research.
On the season, MSU’s offense is not far from its standard: 14.9 percent, as 69 of its 461 plays have met the standard, 38 runs and 31 passes. When the non-conference games are filtered out, the separation reveals itself.
In its first four conference games, MSU generated an explosive play on 8.3 percent of its snaps (21-for-253); seven of those 21 were runs in the Auburn game. After 18 explosive plays against Stephen F. Austin, 13 against Kansas State and 17 against UL Lafayette, MSU had four against Kentucky, four against Florida and five against LSU.
It’s not that MSU’s run-pass split is leaving explosive plays on the table, either. In those four SEC games, 14 of MSU’s 154 runs have gone for 12 or more yards, a mere 9.08 percent. In that same span, seven of 99 passes went for 15 or more yards, 7.08 percent.
Texas A&M is not allowing the recent history to color its opinion. The Aggies have played victim to Nick Fitzgerald in recent meetings, watching him throw for four touchdowns and run for three over the last two meetings, both of them Bulldog wins.
“That guy’s a great player, and he’s going to rebound,” Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said. “He’s a heck of a football player. Everybody has days where they don’t play as well as they want to, but the true competitors battle back and watch, he’ll battle back this week and he’ll be ready to play. That’s what great players and great competitors do.”
There is some data that suggests this is the matchup to start creating big plays.
Bill Connelly’s marginal explosiveness metric judges a defense’s ability to limit explosive plays adjusted for the likelihood of an explosive play in that down-and-distance situation. In that statistic, Texas A&M ranks 128th, only two teams in the nation worse.
The blow-by-blow of how the Aggies got there is nuanced.
Texas A&M has allowed 50 explosive plays by the Moorhead standard, 13.05 percent of all plays faced, but it comes with a catch: 14 of those 50 came when the Aggies lost to Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa and the Crimson Tide lit the Aggies up for 12 explosive pass plays to go with two runs; since then, in three wins over Arkansas, Kentucky and South Carolina, Texas A&M has allowed 17 explosive plays combined.
When MSU scouts the defense, they see a lot more of the team that’s righted the ship recently than the team that struggled with Alabama.
“They’re really good,” offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said. “They’re an attacking, aggressive group: the line movements, the way their guys get off the football, the linebackers are downhill players. They present a big challenge.”
Follow Dispatch sports writer Brett Hudson on Twitter @Brett_Hudson
You can help your community
Quality, in-depth journalism is essential to a healthy community. The Dispatch brings you the most complete reporting and insightful commentary in the Golden Triangle, but we need your help to continue our efforts. In the past week, our reporters have posted 36 articles to cdispatch.com. Please consider subscribing to our website for only $2.30 per week to help support local journalism and our community.
You can help your community
Quality, in-depth journalism is essential to a healthy community. The Dispatch brings you the most complete reporting and insightful commentary in the Golden Triangle, but we need your help to continue our efforts. In the past week, our reporters have posted 36 articles to cdispatch.com. Please consider subscribing to our website for only $2.30 per week to help support local journalism and our community.
