In Thursday’s paper, The Dispatch spoke with ESPN MLB draft analyst Kiley McDaniel to get his thoughts on Mississippi State’s 2022 signing class.
McDaniel also discussed the Bulldogs’ current players, evaluating their draft stock and gauging whether they might return for the 2023 season.
Here’s what he had to say about MSU.
The below rankings come from McDaniel’s latest MLB draft top 300, published July 8.
No. 50 Landon Sims, RHP
An injury to his ulnar collateral ligament likely won’t keep Sims from turning pro after his redshirt sophomore season.
But having to undergo Tommy John surgery in March certainly hasn’t helped his draft stock.
Sims looked lights out in two of his three starts this season before tearing his UCL against Tulane and missing the rest of the season.
According to McDaniel, he missed out on a chance to prove himself at a new position.
“I think Sims would have been a mid-to-late first-round pick if he stayed healthy all year and proved that he could be a starter,” McDaniel said. “I think he probably would have gone late first round if he just was a reliever the whole time.”
McDaniel compared Sims to JT Ginn, who underwent Tommy John in 2020 and was picked 52nd overall by the New York Mets.
He said Sims has received interest from teams picking as early as the late 20s and early 30s, although he might not go quite that high.
“By the middle of the second round, somebody will take him,” McDaniel said. “It will probably be for an overslot bonus.”
Even though Sims’ rehab is ongoing, he projects to be in the big leagues before long. Had he not gotten injured, he could have been MLB ready now.
McDaniel said he has a chance to be the first player from the 2022 draft to reach the big leagues — as a relief pitcher, not a starter.
“I think if you fast-track him as a reliever, he can be very impressive, and it’s what a lot of teams are looking for at that part of the draft,” McDaniel said.
No. 87 Logan Tanner, C
Logan Tanner didn’t have the offensive season he was looking for in 2022.
And it’s likely to cost him on draft boards.
Tanner said he hoped to hit .330 this season but ended up with just a .285 average, two points below his 2021 mark.
McDaniel said Tanner’s limited ceiling at the plate impacts where he’s likely to be drafted.
“I think for Tanner, teams know a lot about him,” McDaniel said. “Defensively, what they know, they’re really excited about, and offensively it’s just a little more of a mixed bag in terms of what teams think he can do.”
McDaniel said Tanner’s arm grades out at 60 on the 20-80 scale, making it a “plus” attribute for the Bulldogs catcher. Tanner’s pop time — the span from the pitch hitting his mitt to the arrival of his throw to second base to nab a would-be base stealer — is between 1.9 and 1.95 seconds; baseball’s best catchers aren’t far ahead at 1.8-1.85 seconds.
“He doesn’t have to do a ton with the bat to be one of the best 30 catchers in the world at some point in his career, and that’s why I think he’ll go in the second or third round,” McDaniel said.
But Tanner’s draft stock has sunk. Since played with catchers Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech, Daniel Susac of Arizona and Hayden Dunhurst of Ole Miss on Team USA; there’s been a separation of sorts.
Because of their offense, Parada is a likely top-five pick and Susac is a projected first-rounder. Tanner’s defense does make him superior to Dunhurst, who is likely to be drafted in the third or fourth round.
“I think Tanner has some raw power,” McDaniel said. “I think he can put the ball in play. I think he has the broad stuff you’re looking for, but I think there’s some catchers from the college ranks and from the high school ranks who have just a little more of that twitchy athletic upside, especially in the batter’s box where teams can dream a little bit more.”
No. 232 Brad Cumbest, OF
Brad Cumbest hit .302 with 15 home runs in 2022, finally displaying his hit and power tools over a full season.
But his relative lack of track record makes Cumbest a bit of a project when it comes to the draft, McDaniel said.
That doesn’t mean the two-sport standout won’t be coveted. McDaniel compared Cumbest to Oakland Athletics prospect Cody Thomas, who played football and baseball at Oklahoma.
And Cumbest’s 6-foot-6, 235-pound frame will give him options in the draft.
“Teams — I think of the Dodgers first when I think of this — who are very good at developing hitters and making adjustments, they’re going to see that group of tools as something they want to get their hands on and see what they can make with it,” McDaniel said.
No. 272 Kamren James, 3B
Like Tanner, Kamren James didn’t have quite the season he wanted when he chose to return for 2021.
James hit a solid .303 but didn’t show much power, hitting just nine home runs and nine doubles. He did steal 14 bases, but his fielding at third base was less pristine with six errors in 74 chances at the hot corner.
Still, teams can look at James’ 6-foot-2 frame and see everything they want.
“I think he’s another guy who fits in with what a lot of teams like when they get later in the draft, where they’re like, ‘Let’s get a couple traits we like. We don’t really care what the stats were like; we just want to get a couple things that fit what we look for, and we’ll teach them the rest,’” McDaniel said.
Whether James signs with a pro team again depends on the amount he’s looking for, but McDaniel said he would likely receive less if he stays at MSU.
“I have no idea what his interest is, but I am certain someone will offer him six figures,” McDaniel said. “That’s a real amount of money.”
It could be worth it for James, a player McDaniel compared to a recent high pick out of Mississippi State — though he noted James isn’t quite as talented.
“Being a big, athletic guy who can play the infield and has some power, that’s the same building blocks as Jordan Westburg, who’s almost in the big leagues now,” McDaniel said. “Some teams could look at that and dream, ‘Hey, there’s some stuff we can do here.’”
NR Preston Johnson, RHP
Preston Johnson was the most effective starter in terms of strikeouts in the Southeastern Conference in 2022, fanning 117 batters in just 79 innings.
That could be enough to earn him a look in the draft — an opportunity that McDaniel says Johnson shouldn’t pass up.
“If his priority is to make the big leagues, he should probably sign this year,” McDaniel said.
That’s because Johnson, who can return next season, is already 22 years old, making him a “later, lower-dollar option” in the draft — but an option nonetheless.
If he were to return to Mississippi State, he’d test the draft waters again at age 23 — not far from the age most players are nearing their major-league debuts.
“That then becomes a negative where he’s so far away from being ‘on schedule’ that it’s tough,” McDaniel said. “Right now, he’s just a year older than some of the other guys.”
The elimination of more than 40 minor league teams after the 2020 season hurt Johnson and his ilk, McDaniel said, but the SEC strikeout king should get a chance nonetheless.
“The spots for that Preston Johnson kind of player are starting to dry up, but I think he was good enough that he’ll have a spot in pro ball,” McDaniel said.
NR Jackson Fristoe, RHP
Jackson Fristoe had plenty of draft buzz out of his Kentucky high school but ultimately chose to come to college.
But an ugly sophomore season in which he posted a 7.96 ERA in 37 1/3 innings has killed much of what momentum Fristoe once had.
That doesn’t mean it’s gone for good, though.
“He could get back to that at any time,” McDaniel said. “If I were him, I would probably go back to school, try to recoup some of that value and be totally fine — again, like Preston Johnson did.”
A draft-eligible sophomore at age 21, Fristoe should still expect to be drafted at age 22 — albeit at a potential discount from his slot value.
And if things break right, he could hear his name called early on.
“Going in the first couple rounds is not hard to get to, and he has looked like that kind of guy at times,” McDaniel said.
NR Brandon Smith, RHP
Brandon Smith moved into Mississippi State’s weekend rotation midseason in 2022 and despite a high ERA held his own against most SEC offenses.
The ground-ball pitcher’s success could mean the end of his MSU tenure, McDaniel said.
“There’s certainly some teams that would see him as a guy who’s shown it enough and has bounced back well enough that there’s a spot in pro ball for that guy,” he said.
McDaniel said he saw Smith pitch at the SEC tournament as a freshman in 2019 and put the Bulldogs righty on his prospect list.
Smith missed the 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he’s managed to get himself back on the radar of professional teams.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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