Mississippi State (2-9, 0-7 Southeastern Conference) travels to Oxford for the Egg Bowl against No. 15 Ole Miss (8-3, 4-3) at 2:30 p.m. Friday on ABC. The Rebels have explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball but have not quite lived up to their lofty expectations this season, and are coming off a loss at Florida that severely damaged their College Football Playoff hopes.
Here are four keys to victory for the Bulldogs as they look for a huge upset of their biggest rivals.
Protect the quarterback
MSU has had trouble keeping freshman Michael Van Buren upright all season, and Ole Miss has the best pass rush in the nation, leading all FBS teams by far with 4.6 sacks per game. It’s not entirely up to the offensive line to keep Van Buren on his feet – the quarterback can do what he can to move the pocket around and get to the outside – but the big bodies up front will need to win their one-on-one matchups to at least contain the likes of Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen.
Get off the field on third down
Last week against Missouri, the Bulldogs’ defense was on the field for more than 26 of 30 minutes in the second half, thanks in large part to the Tigers converting 11 of 18 third downs. As a big underdog, MSU needs to keep the potent Rebels offense on the sidelines for as long as possible, and that means forcing a punt or a field goal attempt when it has the chance.
Missouri had success setting up makable third downs by staying ahead of the chains and picking up small chunks on first and second down. The Bulldogs can’t let that happen this week.
Win the turnover battle
It’s part of the recipe for just about every big upset. Florida beat Ole Miss last week in large part by forcing three turnovers and committing only one. In the middle portion of the season, MSU was doing a relatively good job taking the ball away, recovering two fumbles against Texas and coming up with two interceptions against Georgia and two more against Texas A&M.
Since then, the takeaways have slowed, and Van Buren has had a difficult time with ball security. The Bulldogs will not be able to survive giving up a defensive touchdown, like the play that killed their momentum against Missouri.
Stay calm amidst the chaos
This is as big as the talent gap in this matchup has been in many years, but the Egg Bowl is known for its weirdness and unpredictability. The more disciplined MSU remains, the better the Bulldogs’ chances to benefit from whatever chaos takes place. Ole Miss is still clinging to its playoff hopes, while MSU has nothing to play for other than ruining its rival’s season. That could make the Bulldogs tough to put away.
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