A rare NCAA tournament without the Mississippi State baseball team is set to begin Friday.
The Bulldogs (26-30, 9-21 Southeastern Conference) missed out on postseason play for the first time since 2015, failing to make — or even get all that close — to an NCAA regional.
MSU’s struggles began at the start of the 2022 campaign as the Bulldogs attempted to defend their 2021 College World Series title. Injuries, a lack of pitching depth and a dearth of clutch hitting eventually took their toll.
Mississippi State was swept in its final three SEC series, posting its worst conference record since an 8-22 mark in 2015. The Bulldogs missed the tournament for just the second time since 2011.
Here are five numbers that show why MSU is sitting at home as regional play begins.
6.07: Team earned run average
Mississippi State’s pitching struggled considerably in 2022, posting a 6.07 ERA as a unit.
That mark ranked 190th nationally among 293 Division I teams and dead last in the SEC. In the conference, Georgia’s 5.73 ERA was second-to-last.
A 27-run blow-up against No. 1 overall seed Tennessee on May 20 skewed the Bulldogs’ numbers, but their pitching was still poor for much of the year.
Long Beach State scored 13 runs at Dudy Noble Field in the opening series. Georgia scored 11 and 12 in the first two SEC games. Missouri averaged 10 runs per game in a series win over the Bulldogs in Columbia.
Two pitchers who wound up as starters finished the year with ERAs over 5. Preston Johnson had a 5.47 mark, and Brandon Smith ended up with a 5.88 ERA. Cade Smith finished the season at 3.86.
The Bulldogs’ bullpen was even worse. Parker Stinnett, KC Hunt and Jackson Fristoe all posted ERAs over 6; four other MSU relievers combined for a 10.27 ERA in 75 1/3 innings.
8: Wins against NCAA tournament teams
In 2022, the Bulldogs posted just an 8-21 record against teams that qualified for the field of 64.
Mississippi State played a little less than half its schedule against tournament teams, including eight of 10 SEC opponents. Four of those eight — LSU, Florida, A&M and Tennessee; swept the Bulldogs.
State won just one season series against a postseason-bound club, taking two out of three from Auburn in April at Dudy Noble Field. The Bulldogs won a road series at Ole Miss the following weekend but lost the ensuing Governor’s Cup game in Pearl for a season split with the Rebels.
The Bulldogs went a combined 6-19 against tournament-bound SEC teams.
In nonconference play, Mississippi State faced three teams that made an NCAA regional. MSU lost to Southern Miss in Pearl, split a pair of games with Texas Tech in Biloxi and beat Binghamton handily at home.
Overall, the Bulldogs’ poor record against top teams is a key reason why MSU missed out.
9: Losses in one-run games
Mississippi State went 7-9 in one-run games in 2022, a statistic which by itself seems fairly respectable.
But compared with the Bulldogs’ penchant for winning close contests in 2021, it’s easy to see where MSU came up short.
The first national title-winning team in school history went a remarkable 12-3 in one-run games, including three such victories in College World Series bracket play.
The 2022 Bulldogs, though, couldn’t sustain that success.
Mississippi State struggled in close games from the start, losing twice by one run at Tulane and by the same margin at Georgia. MSU lost one-run games to Auburn, LSU and Missouri.
Additionally, several games — including contests against Florida and at Texas A&M — were close for seven or eight innings but ended up being decided by multiple runs.
Those games were just more evidence of the Bulldogs’ inability to finish, and it cost them in 2022.
20: Innings pitched by Landon Sims and Stone Simmons
MSU’s pitching staff was hampered by injury all season.
And no losses were bigger than that of ace starter Landon Sims and lockdown reliever Stone Simmons.
Sims tore his ulnar collateral ligament March 4 at Tulane; Simmons did the same the following day. The two barely got started on their 2022 season before it came to a premature end.
Sims made just three starts as he looked to build on a dynamic 2021 season as the Bulldogs’ closer. He took a hard-luck loss after 13 strikeouts over seven innings in the season opener against Long Beach State and allowed four runs — just one earned — the following week in a loss to Northern Kentucky.
He was dealing in New Orleans before injuring his UCL on a pitch in the fourth inning. Sims struck out 10 Green Wave hitters in 3 2/3 perfect innings before departing. He underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-March.
Simmons suffered his injury on the final pitch of a scoreless eighth inning the following day as MSU blew a 10-2 lead en route to a painful 11-10 loss. The one-time Furman pitcher did not allow a run in any of his 4 1/3 innings, pitching behind Sims in each of his first two appearances before being injured in his third.
Sims’ and Simmons’ injuries weren’t the only ones to bite the Bulldogs. KC Hunt missed more than a month after being hurt in his first start, and freshman Brooks Auger was injured in April and also underwent Tommy John.
110: Final RPI
Mississippi State wound up at a paltry No. 110 in WarrenNolan.com’s final Rating Percentage Index, a sign of how far the Bulldogs came from the tournament field.
Grand Canyon, for example, was a surprise pick for an at-large bid with an RPI of No. 50. Ole Miss’ RPI ranked 39th, and the Rebels were also a bit of a surprise when their presence in the field was announced.
But the late-season skid in addition to a few other factors sent the Bulldogs sliding down the rankings.
MSU’s nonconference strength of schedule ranked 273rd nationally. Opponents such as Grambling State (No. 276), Jackson State (No. 277), Princeton (No. 286), North Alabama (No. 288) and Arkansas–Pine Bluff (No. 299) brought that number down.
So did Mississippi State’s Feb. 25 loss to Northern Kentucky, which finished the year 19-35 and No. 249 in RPI.
Only 10 Power Five teams finished lower in RPI than the Bulldogs, almost all in the Big Ten.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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