Ugly history
Recent history in the series doesn’t favor Mississippi State. The Tigers have won 23 of the last 24 against the Bulldogs, with the exception being a 17-16 home win for MSU in 1999. In Dan Mullen’s tenure at MSU, LSU has won all five meetings, including a 59-26 victory a season ago.
But count LSU coach Les Miles among those who doesn’t care about recent history when discussing Saturday night’s game.
“We’re going to have to earn the victory,” Miles said.
Mullen, who came within a yard of beating LSU in a 30-26 loss in his debut season in 2009, isn’t focused on the past, either.
“It is all about this week and our focus on this one game,” Mullen said. “That is what we talk to our guys about, and it is what our focus is on.”
Strength vs. strength?
On the surface, MSU’s strength defensively and LSU’s strength offensively look destined for a clash. The Tigers are fifth in the Southeastern Conference in rushing yards (226 yards per game), while the Bulldogs are second in the league at defending the run (80.3 ypg.). Opponents are averaging 2.3 yards per carry against the Bulldogs.
“We want to stop the run. That’s our identity as a defense,” said MSU defensive coordinator Geoff Collins. “We will have to play assignment football and be at our best against a huge, physical offensive line. LSU keeps reloading at tailback. They just bring wave after wave of athletic guys at you from the running back spots.”
LSU has averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a team, down from 5.03 a year ago. That average is the lowest total for any Miles-led LSU team through three games. That could spell bad news against a defensive front that leads the SEC with 29 tackles for loss.
The one that got away
Anthony Jennings won an offseason battle against freshman Brandon Harris and will lead LSU at quarterback.
But while Jennings has been effective — 596 yards, five touchdowns — he has completed 51 percent of his passes and has only started five games.
Contrast that with MSU’s Dak Prescott, who enters the game as the SEC leader among quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (19) and touchdown passes this season (nine).
“He’s strong, a guy that stands back in the pocket, knows what he’s looking at, makes the throws and has the ability to pull it down,” Miles said. “He runs with strength. I don’t know how fast he is, but, you know, he carves through the ground very quickly and when you go to tackle him, you better hit him hard. You better take him off his feet because he’s just a big, physical kid.”
For those reasons, LSU extended the Haughton, Louisiana, native a scholarship offer late in the recruiting process in 2011, months after Prescott committed to play for Mullen at MSU. While he admits he was honored to receive the offer, Prescott said, “By that time, my heart was already in Starkville and my mind was set on Mississippi State.”
Key matchup, MSU offense vs. LSU defense
It’s not hard to predict MSU will lean on Prescott’s legs to produce yardage and keep the chains moving against a defense that has pitched back-to-back shutouts.
But Prescott won’t be enough. With LSU boasting All-SEC cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Jalen Mills, outside weapons like wide receivers De’Runnya Wilson and Robert Johnson could be neutralized. But MSU could have opportunities in the middle of the field against nickel backs and linebackers. That’s where slot receiver Jameon Lewis and tight end Malcolm Johnson, two players who haven’t found a groove, could have breakout games. Lewis, who entered the season as the SEC’s leading returning receiver, leads MSU with 10 receptions, but he has only 107 yards and no touchdowns, while Johnson, who caught 30 passes a year ago, has four catches. Big games from either would go a long way in helping Prescott and the Bulldog offense light up the Tiger Stadium scoreboard.
Key matchup, LSU offense vs. MSU defense
Assuming MSU’s front seven, which leads the SEC in sacks (11) and tackles for loss (29), continues to play well in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the Bulldogs should be able to contain the Tigers’ ground game.
But questions remain in MSU’s secondary. Alabama-Birmingham torched MSU for 435 yards and three touchdowns of 75 yards or more two weeks ago. Although MSU’s defensive backfield looked better against South Alabama, the Jaguars still threw for 288 yards.
If those holes continue in MSU’s defensive secondary, LSU wide receiver Travin Dural could be a major factor. Dural, a sophomore, leads the SEC with 12 catches for 370 yards and four touchdowns.
But MSU safety Justin Cox, who missed the South Alabama game and wasn’t on the field for UAB’s big plays, is expected to play Saturday night, giving MSU a level of athleticism and speed needed to control the back end of the defense. MSU’s ability to corral Dural will be key to the outcome.
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