If the 2022 NCAA baseball tournament started Thursday, Mississippi State would likely not be in it.
The Bulldogs were not in the D1Baseball.com projected field of 64 on Wednesday — nor even among the first four out. With a 6-9 Southeastern Conference record and a 22-16 overall mark, the defending national champions would miss out on a chance at a repeat title.
But the season doesn’t end halfway through conference play. With five SEC series and the conference tournament remaining, MSU has plenty of time to get back toward the top of the league and secure a postseason berth.
And while results are mixed, history shows the Bulldogs have a respectable chance to do exactly that.
The Dispatch examined the records and postseason outcomes of 21 SEC baseball teams over the last three full seasons — 2018, 2019 and 2021 — that finished the first half of conference play within two games of Mississippi State’s 6-9 mark. That included three teams with 8-7 records, five with 4-11 marks and even one (Missouri in 2019) sitting at 7-7-1 because of a tie.
Eleven of the 21 teams made the NCAA tournament, but 10 were left at home.
Here’s what the data show about MSU’s postseason case — and how far the Bulldogs could go.
SEC wins
Of the 21 teams examined, five matched the Bulldogs’ 6-9 conference record through the first half of SEC play.
Four of those teams went on to make the NCAA tournament. Missouri’s 2018 team missed out, posting another 6-9 stretch to finish with a 12-18 record in SEC play.
Missouri was also the only team that missed the tournament with a .500 or better record through 15 games, sitting at 7-7-1 after a tie with Texas A&M in 2019 but ending up 13-16-1 and out of the postseason.
All three teams that started 8-7 made the tournament; of the five teams with just four wins, only last year’s LSU squad made it. The Tigers went 9-6 down the stretch and made it all the way to Super Regionals.
Mississippi State made the College World Series in 2018 after going 5-10 to start, but Tennessee finished 12-18 in conference play despite starting with the same record, missing the tournament.
Three of the five teams to start 7-8 actually missed out on a regional, including Georgia and Kentucky last season.
Total wins
In terms of overall record, only four teams owned fewer than the Bulldogs’ 22 wins through five SEC series and the following midweek contest.
Two of them — MSU in 2018 (just 19 wins) and South Carolina in 2018 (20 wins) made the tournament; two did not. Three of the four teams with exactly 22 wins did not qualify; LSU last season was the exception.
Five of the eight teams with 25 or more wins made a regional, with Missouri missing out in both 2018 and 2019. Ole Miss had 30 wins by this point in 2018, starting 8-7 in SEC play and going on to win 18 conference games. The Rebels earned the No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Teams sitting at 24 wins saw mixed results. LSU’s 2018 squad and Florida’s 2019 team both made it — the Gators despite a 13-17 conference record — but Georgia posted the same record last year and was left at home.
Alabama in 2019 also had 24 wins at the midway point, but the Tide had just four SEC wins and struggled to a 7-23 conference finish, missing the tournament.
The magic number
Every SEC team in the list that won 14 or more conference games over the past three seasons earned admission to the NCAA tournament.
That practically gives Mississippi State a “magic number” for postseason inclusion: Should it win eight of its final 15 SEC games, MSU should be in.
It’s not an overly difficult benchmark to clear. For the Bulldogs, it could mean winning two out of three in three of the final five series — which are against Ole Miss, Missouri, Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee — and taking just one game in the other two.
Fall below that line, and it’s hard to predict what will happen. Missouri missed the tournament in 2019 with its 13-16-1 record; Kentucky (2018) and Georgia (2021) had 13 wins but missed out, while three other teams made it with the same conference record.
Only one 12-win team, last season’s Alabama squad, made the field. The other three were not selected.
Anything short of that is almost certain to leave MSU in the cold. Four teams finished between seven and nine conference wins; none of them made a regional.
Regional seeding
For the 11 teams that did qualify for the NCAA tournament, only Ole Miss was named a regional host.
The Rebels got the No. 4 overall seed by virtue of a 46-15 record through the SEC tournament, building on their strong start. (Of course, they then lost twice to Tennessee Tech in a huge regional upset.)
Six teams earned a No. 2 seed in their respective regionals — two in 2019 and four in 2018. Mississippi State was among those, getting sent to Tallahassee, where Elijah MacNamee came up clutch in a walk-off win over Florida State.
Four teams earned 3 seeds, including LSU and Alabama last season. The Crimson Tide were eliminated in Louisiana Tech’s regional, but the Tigers won in Eugene, Oregon, to advance to Super Regionals.
None of the teams earned a No. 4 seed, which typically go to teams earning automatic bids.
Postseason outcomes
Mississippi State’s 2018 squad upended Vanderbilt in Super Regionals, punching its ticket to the College World Series.
The Bulldogs were one of just two SEC teams that started between 4-11 and 8-7 to make it to Omaha. Auburn’s 2019 team — which met MSU at TD Ameritrade Park — was the other.
But although the odds of Mississippi State making its fourth straight trip seem slim, plenty of the 21 teams studied made it deep into the postseason. Three others — LSU (2021), Auburn (2018) and South Carolina (2018) all made it to Super Regionals.
The other six tournament qualifiers were all bounced in the regional round, with all but Ole Miss (2018) sent on the road.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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