They call these kinds of games “tea leaf games.” The outcome is predictable, but you hope to find something meaningful that be applied to the game to come.
The Bulldogs did what they were supposed to do Saturday against an outmatched Troy team.
State scored two touchdowns in the first two minutes and breezed to a 38-0 halftime lead. They took control early, played a lot of young players and cruised to a 45-17 win.
MSU is 4-2 at the halfway point of the season. There are no “A-ha!” moments now. What you see, is what you get.
So, then, is there anything to be gleaned from such an obvious mismatch?
As it turns out, we didn’t learn anything new about this team on Saturday. But one thing was confirmed, something I suspect will alter reasonable expectations for what this team can ultimately achieve.
The Achilles Heel on this team is its inability to consistently run the football.
The numbers from Saturday’s game reflect what we have seen during the previous five games. State had 33 runs for 125 yards (3.8 yards per attempt) against a Troy team that was giving up 218 rushing yards a game (4.3 yards per rush).
Through six games, State is averaging 133 rushing yards per game.
If you want to note the biggest difference between this year’s team and the 2014 team that was — at this same juncture in the season — 6-0 and ranked No. 1 in the nation, the running game is the obvious answer: State is averaging a full 100 fewer rushing yards this year when compared to last year.
Admittedly, statistics don’t always provide the full story. The Bulldogs’ inability to consistently run was of little consequence Saturday. State made big plays on defense, special teams and in the passing game, which more than negated any deficiency exposed in the running game.
In his six previous seasons at State, Dan Mullen’s teams were noted for the ability to run the football and pass to complement the running game.
This year, by necessity, the script has been flipped. That’s not all bad, obviously. With a smart, talented senior quarterback in Dak Prescott and probably the best collection of receivers in school history, the Bulldogs have weapons in the passing game that should be used.
Even so, the lack of a running game puts pressure on the Bulldog offense.
Asked about his team’s running game after Saturday’s contest, Mullen sort of shrugged, “It was OK,” he said.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
By now, State has gone through every combination of backs — Saturday, five running backs and three quarterbacks had carries. The longest run, which came on the last play of the game, was a 23-yard run by Dontavian Lee.
In the second half, when State was inclined to run the ball and shorten the game, the Bulldogs were stopped on three possessions when they were unable to convert on short third-down running plays. Never in Mullen’s tenure has a third-and-3 play seemed like an obvious passing situation.
Of course, that didn’t matter against the Trojans. It will likely matter a great deal in future games against stout defenses, such as Missouri, Alabama and Ole Miss.
Whatever the effect of that flaw has on the offense, it may have an even greater impact on the defense. When you can’t run the ball, you lose the time-of-possession battle. State’s offense had the ball for just 20 minutes of the game Saturday. That’s just one-third of the game. It was hardly a new development: Coming into the game, the Bulldogs had averaged 12 fewer minutes per game in time of possession.
How does it impact the defense? Lower possession time means more plays for the defense.
Keep any defense on the field long enough, and it begins to break down.
State’s defense is pretty good. But it’s probably not good enough to play 80 or 90 plays a game against SEC offenses and expect to win.
After each game, Mullen notes that there “things we need to get cleaned up.”
But there is no magic cleanser for what stains the Bulldogs’ prospects going into the second half of the season.
It is what it is.
Slim Smith is a columnist and feature writer for The Dispatch. His email address is [email protected].
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