Even though rain is in the forecast for the Golden Triangle over the weekend, it likely won’t be enough to break the ongoing drought.
“We’ve got some (rain) chances, but it’s not going to be a whole lot,” said National Weather Service Jackson Office Hydrologist Marty Pope. “Right now, we’ll take anything we can get.”
While the Golden Triangle is actually ahead of its normal rate of precipitation for the year, it’s very behind over the past three months, Pope said.
“You’re about 110% of normal for the year, but a lot of that rainfall probably came through in the heavy rain events back in July,” Pope said. “That’s probably skewing the whole thing. Over the past 90 days, (the Golden Triangle) is somewhere between 25% and 50% of what would be normal.”
While that has some obvious downsides — the very high fire risk among them, leading to area burn bans — it also has had some benefits.
“It’s been good for harvest progress and allowing farmers to finish field work, as far as tillage and preparing harvested fields for planting (summer) crops for next year,” said Erick Larson, grain crop specialist with the Mississippi State University Extension Service.
The immediate problem is with winter crops, Larson said.
“The negative aspect is with cover crops, cereals like wheat or oats, and wildlife food plots, the drought is prohibiting germination of those seeds,” Larson said. “Establishing those winter species is difficult, if not impossible, before it rains.”
Those crops will emerge once the area sees some rain, Larson said.
“When rainfall does return to the Golden Triangle area, which I fully expect it will by December, those plants will emerge and progress normally,” Larson said. “Hopefully (drought conditions) won’t persist well into December.”
The El Niño effect
Pope said this year’s strong El Niño forecast should bring some relief and likely starting next month.
El Niño is a climate pattern that causes the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position, which tends to make the Gulf Coast and Southeast wetter than usual. Temperatures are expected to fall below average this winter, as well, due to the pattern.
“Usually, it doesn’t really kick in until the December through April time frame,” Pope said. “We were already seeing some moderate (El Niño) activity in September, and that’s pretty much what killed the hurricane season.”
The peak of this El Niño is coming soon, Pope said.
“We’re expecting it to peak in December and January,” he said. “We would expect to see more rainfall through probably the December through April time frame, with the heavier rainfall in December and January.”
That’s certainly not a guarantee of relief, though.
“We’ve had some (El Niño periods) that just didn’t have rains like you would normally,” Pope said.
The strongest rains will hit closer to the coast, and weaken above a Vicksburg-to-Meridian line, he said.
Pope said he hopes to see a gradual breaking of the drought.
“It’ll probably take five, six inches over a fairly slow time period,” Pope said. “That would bring us back to normal, or doggone close to it. … I’d rather wet it up slowly this weekend. That would be the ideal thing for us.”
If the heavier El Niño rain lingers into next year, it won’t necessarily be a bad thing, Larson said.
“If we have more rainfall during early spring, most of that moisture doesn’t stay in the soil,” Larson said. “It runs off into creeks and rivers. It doesn’t really have a big impact on agriculture.”
The biggest negative impact would be potentially pushing back planting of corn, soybeans and cotton, Larson said.
“That’s the polar opposite of where we’re at right now,” Larson said.
Larson said he just hopes the rainfall swings back into something more familiar later this year.
“If we get back to more normal patterns within the next four to six weeks … the ag community will not notice things to be a lot different than normal,” Larson said.
Brian Jones is the local government reporter for Columbus and Lowndes County.
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