STARKVILLE — Fans of the Mississippi State University men’s basketball program should do two things these next two weeks: grab your television guide and set your DVR.
While the Bulldogs (20-10, 7-8 in Southeastern Conference) are slated to begin its league tournament with a first-round game Thursday in the New Orleans Arena, conference tournaments already began Monday all across the country and will soon affect MSU’s NCAA tournament hopes.
MSU coach Rick Stansbury has said repeatedly he and his coaching staff will not be paying attention to any games that don’t involve his team specifically.
“I’ve been on that bubble several different times and winning cures everything,” Stansbury said.
Fans of teams on the proverbial of the postseason bubble may not have or want that luxury.
First thing is of course MSU needs to win Saturday in the season finale versus Arkansas (4 p.m., FSN) and likely win its first round game in the league tournament to likely receive an at-large berth into the postseason field of 68.
“It’s senior night, it’s our next game and last game of the season here,” Stansbury said. “It’s an important game. There’s a lot of significance. Our guys will be ready.”
Even the MSU players sense the urgency by seeing their name being talked about on the NCAA bubble. According to both ESPN analyst and CBSSports.com bracket expert Jerry Palm, the Bulldogs are still an at-large candidate for the NCAA tournament.
“I watch sure,” MSU senior point guard Dee Bost said Monday. “Somebody texted me to say we’re still projected to go in.”
However, its fate will also be decided by how the favorites of several mid-major conference tournaments fare throughout the next nine days until selection Sunday on March 11.
“If you’re a Mississippi State fan right now, you’re not only the fan of a your team but you need become a cheerleader for around 6-8 schools you’ve probably never thought about until now,” CBS Sports college basketball national writer Gary Parrish said.
According to ESPN.com bracket analyst Joe Lunardi, MSU is not one of the dreaded last four teams in his projected field as of today but the reason for the Bulldogs to have hopes for conference tournament favorites is a stumble by any of them will eat up one of the 37 at-large spots that MSU will likely need to make its 11th trip to the NCAA tournament in school history.
“We know based on history of the last decade that an average of 2.1 bids per year are swiped by what we call ‘big thieves’ during Championship Week,” Lunardi said. “Those teams right now that are the last two or three in, you want to get past that before you start to put the champagne in the refrigerator.”
For example, the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament began Thursday and the two top seeds are Wichita State University (25-4) and the University of Creighton (25-5). Those two programs are both national ranked and are likely in the NCAA field regardless of what they accomplish from today on in their postseason tournament at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. However, if any other school in that league is crowned Sunday insuring them participation in the field of 68 as the league tournament champion then their inclusion essentially subtracts an at-large berth from the pool of willing candidates from major conferences. Under this scenario, suddenly the perceived two-bid Missouri Valley Conference has three schools dancing.
“We see it every season where a Indiana State will pop up and win their league tournament or a Houston wins Conference USA and then a major school on the bubble is planning for the NIT,” Parrish said.
Through e-mail communication, The Dispatch has consulted with Lunardi and CBSSports.com bracket expert Jerry Palm to learn nine mid-major conference could have a direct reflection on MSU’s at-large chances (Atlantic 10, Big West, Conference USA, Ivy League, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Ohio Valley, Summit League and West Coast Conference).
“The thing I will say is here’s the deal — look at (Lunardi’s) last four in the field (because) it is so weak,” ESPN college basketball analyst Andy Katz said on his weekly podcast. “It is a year, yet again, you have to fill the field with at best decent at-large teams.”
In a twist of irony, MSU fans may have to cheer for an in-state rival University of Southern Mississippi (24-6) to win the Conference USA Tournament, which starts in Tulsa, Okla., on Wednesday, because with a rating percentage index number of 16 the Golden Eagles are perceived to be solidly in the field.
“The last thing MSU fans would need right now is for anybody but Memphis or Southern Miss to win that tournament,” Parrish said. “That would spell disaster.”
The Ivy League is still the only conference in Division 1 men;s college basketball which doesn’t have a postseason tournament and crowns its regular season champion with the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
However, Harvard University (24-4), the University of Pennsylvania (17-11) and Yale University (19-7) could all finish with identical league records requiring a tiebreaker procedure that could include a neutral site play-in game scenario.
Havard, with an RPI number of 38, is considered a safe at-large selection but if it falters down the stretch in this final week could open the door for the league to be a multi-bid conference for the first time since the creation of the NCAA tournament in 1941.
Of course the easy equation for all MSU fans and those involved in the program would be to repeat the four wins in four days run to the 2009 SEC Tournament championship in Tampa and all the worrying and attention paid to the bubble teams across the county during conference tournaments would be essentially wasted effort.
“I know that I was was just a freshman during that run in Tampa but that was such a fun experience and there’s no reason why that can’t be repeated again in my final year this season,” MSU senior walk-on co-captain Taylor Luczak said. “We have the talent to certainly accomplish something like that.”
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