STARKVILLE — For better or worse, Mississippi State is going bowling.
Slated for a matchup against No. 24 Tulsa in Thursday’s Armed Forces Bowl, this year marks the 11th-straight season that MSU has earned a bowl bid. And while this year’s squad limps into its Lone Star State postseason appearance following a 3-7 season, it marks a chance for the Bulldogs to build for the future.
Here’s a look at three matchups to watch:
MSU quarterback Will Rogers vs. Tulsa pass defense
Will Rogers is seemingly finding his footing.
After scattered play in his relief of Stanford graduate transfer K.J. Costello, Rogers has steadily progressed since being granted the full-time starting job in early November. After earning his first career start against Vanderbilt on Nov. 7, the Brandon native has completed a smidge over 69 percent of his passes for 1,828 yards and 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Having run the air raid as a high schooler, there’s a familiarity between Rogers and his present system. He’s been patient in the pocket, moving only when necessary, while also keeping his eyes downfield. There have been freshman mistakes — take the seven interceptions, for example — but Rogers has generally shown an uptick in productivity. That will be severely tested Thursday.
Tulsa’s defense under the guidance of defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie ranks No. 22 in the country in pass defense and is allowing just 194 yards per game through the air. Facing a slew of dynamic offenses in American Athletic Conference play, the Golden Hurricane posted four games in which it allowed less than 185 yards passing — though that number was helped some by run-heavy schemes against Navy and Tulane.
In its lone game against Power Five competition this fall, Tulsa held a normally high-powered Oklahoma State offense to just 138 yards through the air in an ugly 16-7 loss in Stillwater.
The Golden Hurricane defense, led by cornerbacks Akayleb Evans and Allie Green IV and safeties Kendarin Ray and Christian Williams, also boast the sixth-best coverage grade in all of college football according to Pro Football Focus.
For Rogers and MSU to go out on a high note, it will have to find some way to exploit the stout Tulsa secondary.
Mississippi State run defense vs. Tulsa’s Corey Taylor II, Deneric Prince and T.K. Wilkerson
Mississippi State will face a three-headed monster Thursday in Fort Worth.
While Tulsa quarterback Zach Smith has been effective, the Golden Hurricane are most dangerous on the ground. Running backs Corey Taylor II, Deneric Prince and T.K. Wilkerson have all notched at least 330 yards rushing in the COVID-19 shortened season to give head coach Phillip Montgomery a balanced rushing attack.
Though each of Taylor, Prince and Wilkerson’s yardage outputs have varied, the actual share of the carries have been almost identical. Taylor and Prince totaled 85 touches a piece in Tulsa’s nine games this year, while Wilkerson was just behind them with 80 carries of his own.
Entering Thursday, MSU’s rush defense ranks No. 21 nationally and is allowing just 125.3 yards per game this year — nearly 40 yards below Tulsa’s per game average. It’s possible the Bulldogs could lose a handful of players to opt outs given seniors Kobe Jones, Erroll Thompson and Marquiss Spencer are not expected to return to Starkville next fall, but those announcements are still forthcoming and no decisions have been made to date.
Assuming MSU has its full host of defensive starters, the Bulldogs would be the highest-ranked rush defense Tulsa has faced this year aside from No. 7 Cincinnati, who comes in at No. 19 in rush defense nationally. The Golden Hurricanes turned in a 166-yard effort against the Bearcats in the AAC Championship on Dec. 19.
Like Rogers vs. Tulsa’s formidable secondary, this is a strength-on-strength matchup and should go a long way in determining who wins this game.
Mike Leach vs. History
For all the wins Mike Leach has piled up in his career, he’s not exactly an ace in bowl games. Through 18 years as a head coach, Leach is just 7-8 in postseason competition and was a meager 2-4 in bowl games at Washington State over the past eight years.
Despite appearing in a bowl game every year since 2010, MSU hasn’t won one since the 2017 TaxSlayer Bowl — a game coached by interim coach Greg Knox, who took over for Dan Mullen after he accepted the head coaching job at Florida.
MSU has looked far more competitive in its final four games of the season and scored a statement win over Missouri in its regular season finale, thumping the Tigers 51-32 in Starkville. For a season that began with promise after a win over defending national champion LSU in Baton Rouge and quickly spiraled into a tailspin, a win Thursday would go a long way in giving the Bulldogs something to build on heading into 2021.
Ben Portnoy reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @bportnoy15.
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