Mississippi State and Auburn are both coming off disappointing road losses.
And the two Southeastern Conference rivals are down for different reasons.
The Bulldogs went 0 for 3 on field goals in a 31-28 loss at Arkansas, while Auburn failed to score a touchdown in a 20-3 defeat at Texas A&M.
So which team will rebound with a win at 11 a.m. Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium?
To find out, The Dispatch spoke with Jordan D. Hill, who covers the Tigers for the Opelika-Auburn News. This is his second season on the Auburn football beat.
Editor’s note: This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Auburn is 6-3 after Saturday’s loss at Texas A&M. How have the Tigers performed relative to your expectations this year?
Hill: Before the season I predicted 8-4 for Bryan Harsin’s debut season, and at this point it looks like that’s exactly where the Tigers will end up. The only notable difference is I had Auburn losing to Ole Miss and beating Texas A&M. This season has gone about as anticipated from the standpoint of the defense being the most consistent part of Auburn’s team and the offense encountering real highs and lows. Did I expect Auburn to be one play away from losing to Georgia State? Absolutely not. I also did not expect the Tigers to probably have the most productive game of any team against Georgia this fall.
Mississippi State has lost four of its past five games against Auburn. Do the Tigers have the Bulldogs’ number somehow, or is it just a factor of Auburn typically being a better team when the two match up?
Hill: I think when you look at the resources and the history of these two programs, you would typically expect Auburn to come out on top of this game. Having said that, it sure seems like the gap between these teams has shrunk over the last 15 years or so. Mississippi State’s most successful seasons over that span have typically included beating Auburn. The Bulldogs topped the Tigers in 2007 (an eight-win season), in 2014 (a 10-win season) and 2015 (a nine-win season); they lost by three in 2010 (a nine-win season).
MSU has a strong run defense, but Arkansas still went for more than 200 yards Saturday — albeit on 45 carries. Can Tank Bigsby and Co. beat the Bulldogs on the ground, or will it be up to Bo Nix and the passing offense?
Hill: I’m not convinced Bigsby and the Tigers will be able to move the ball on the ground. The Tigers’ rushing attack has been surprisingly suspect for most of the year, and after a bounce-back against Ole Miss the team took a significant step back against Texas A&M. My guess is the Tigers turn to Nix and the passing game — and even use Nix’s running ability a bit — to keep pace Saturday.
How does Auburn’s defense match up with an MSU offense that has moved the ball very well this year but hasn’t had a ton of huge scoring outputs because of red-zone mistakes and kicking struggles?
Hill: The Auburn defense has excelled for the most part in Derek Mason’s first season, and I expect them to shine Saturday. The Tigers had a bend-but-don’t-break attitude against Texas A&M last week, and while Auburn struggled at stopping the Aggies’ run game, they mostly limited Zach Calzada and company from generating big plays. The story for Auburn was it gave up several explosive plays against the Aggies but kept them out of the end zone, and I think they’ll prevent the Bulldogs from finding the end zone very often.
If you’re comfortable making one, what is your prediction for how Saturday’s game will go?
Hill: I think Auburn wins 31-20. I believe the Bulldogs will make a few big plays through the air, but the Tigers’ defense limits them by forcing two Will Rogers interceptions. The Auburn offense, meanwhile, finally shows signs of life after six quarters without a touchdown and does enough to get a much-needed home victory.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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Quality, in-depth journalism is essential to a healthy community. The Dispatch brings you the most complete reporting and insightful commentary in the Golden Triangle, but we need your help to continue our efforts. In the past week, our reporters have posted 36 articles to cdispatch.com. Please consider subscribing to our website for only $2.30 per week to help support local journalism and our community.
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