STARKVILLE — Mississippi State football is set to take on Illinois in the ReliaQuest Bowl on Jan. 2.
The game kicks off at 11 a.m. Central that day from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. It will be broadcasted on ESPN2.
Here’s how the Bulldogs (8-4, 4-4 Southeastern Conference) and Illini (8-4, 5-4 Big Ten) match up.
Mississippi State passing offense vs. Illinois passing defense
This will likely be the matchup that determines who takes home the win in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Mississippi State’s passing game makes the Bulldogs’ offense go, to the tune of 314.3 passing yards per contest.
Quarterback Will Rogers has thrown for 3,713 yards, 34 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.
But Illinois’ total defense ranks second in the country, and both its passing defense and rushing defense rank in the top 10 nationally.
Illinois allows 165.4 passing yards per game — barely more than half the Bulldogs’ average yardage through the air.
The Illini have intercepted 22 passes this season, the most in FBS by three. They allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4) of any team in the country.
Mississippi State will likely play without leading wide receiver Rara Thomas, impacting the Bulldogs’ ability to put up big numbers through the air.
Illinois passing offense vs. Mississippi State passing defense
How Mississippi State’s pass defense will fare in Tampa will depend on who takes the field.
Safeties Jackie Matthews and Jalen Green are expected to play their final games as Bulldogs, but safety Collin Duncan declared for the NFL draft and could be unavailable.
Junior cornerback Emmanuel Forbes also declared but could still play; as of mid-December he had yet to announce if he would participate.
The Bulldogs had a strong secondary in 2022, with Forbes tied for second nationally in interceptions and MSU tied for 15th as a team in picks.
Mississippi State allowed the 36th-fewest passing yards per game at 206.8 and was 23rd best in FBS in terms of yards per attempt.
Illinois’ strength is not its passing game. The Illini passed for only 208.3 yards per game, which ranked 97th nationally in 2022.
Quarterback Tommy DeVito’s 69.9 percent completion rate was fourth in FBS. DeVito threw for 2,397 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Mississippi State rushing offense vs. Illinois rushing defense
Mississippi State will be without one of its top two running backs in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Dillon Johnson entered the transfer portal in early December. Graduate J.J. Jernighan, the Bulldogs’ No. 4 running back, did the same.
Jo’quavious Marks and redshirt freshman Simeon Price will be ready to roll, though, against a Illinois run defense perhaps just as good as the Illini’s passing D.
The Illini rank eighth in the country in rushing yards given up and ninth in yards per attempt allowed, allowing fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground on 3.17 yards per carry.
Those averages might only improve against a Mississippi State team not known for running the football.
The Bulldogs are last in rushing attempts and second-to-last in rushing yards per game, totaling just 78.83 yards on the ground per contest.
With Illinois’ strong rushing defense and MSU’s reticence to run, don’t expect a lot of rushing attempts by the Bulldogs in Tampa.
Illinois rushing offense vs. Mississippi State rushing defense
Another extremely important matchup in Tampa will be how Mississippi State is able to handle Illinois’ run game.
That run game starts and ends with junior back Chase Brown, who has run for 1,643 yards — the second-most of anyone in FBS — on 5 yards per carry.
There’s a large dropoff in production between Brown and sophomore Reggie Love III, who has just 276 yards this season. No other Illini player has more than 100.
The disparity is part of the reason Illinois has only the No. 48 rushing attack in the country. The Illini’s efficiency is even worse, ranking 71st in yards per attempt.
Mississippi State’s rushing defense is a good match for the Illini in that category, ranking 68th in yards per attempt allowed. The Bulldogs are 55th in total rushing yardage allowed.
Nose tackle Cameron Young and linebacker Tyrus Wheat, two key members of MSU’s front six, are likely turning pro after the 2022 season. But if they play Jan. 2, they’d help shore up the Bulldogs’ run defense and help MSU keep Brown and Illinois in check.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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