It’s gut-check time for Mississippi State football.
Head coach Jeff Lebby has the Bulldogs rolling after a 4-0 start to the season, finishing nonconference play undefeated with a tricky but thorough 38-10 win over Northern Illinois last weekend.
This Saturday, the Bulldogs welcome No. 15 Tennessee for the first SEC matchup of the season. The university announced a sellout on Monday, and the expectation is for a similar atmosphere that welcomed Arizona State, albeit at 3:15 p.m. rather than under the lights in primetime.
The Vols are 3-1 after opening SEC play in Week Three, losing 44-41 in overtime to Georgia. They rebounded with a comprehensive win over UAB last Saturday, and head to Starkville with an offense that has been able to score against every team faced so far.
The Bulldogs are no slouches though, and it’s a much different team this year than the one that went to Knoxville last year.
“Their entire roster, they’re deeper than they were a year ago,” Vols head coach Josh Heupel said of the Bulldogs. “Their young guys that they had a year ago have continued to develop, and they’re playing extremely well. They obviously added some bodies through the portal as well, and I think collectively their personnel is much further developed than it was a year ago, understanding of their systems is much better. That’s why they’re playing the way that they are defensively.”
Explosives
The Bulldogs have to be able to keep up on Saturday. Whether it’s chasing a lead or setting the pace, the offense simply has to keep scoring and hit on its big plays.
Tennessee has a similar offense that spreads teams out, looks to create space downfield, and gets playmakers in space. Even if the Bulldog defense can get stops, it’s a difficult scheme to go up against at full speed all game, so the offense has to carry its fair share of the burden.
Blake Shapen had an off day throwing the ball against NIU, but the MSU playmakers still got open. Anthony Evans, Jordan Mosley and Brenen Thompson all got open downfield. They will get open again on Saturday, and Shapen has to hit them.
The expectation is for the Vols to be explosive on offense as well. Receiver Chris Brazzell II already has 426 yards and six touchdowns through four games, and quarterback Joey Aguilar has quickly eased concerns about the quarterback situation following Nico Iamaleava’s departure.
The Bulldog secondary has their work cut out for them, but their familiarity with MSU’s offense will help some in planning for the Vols’ own veer-and-shoot style.
“For our guys, it will be a great challenge and test this week,” Lebby said. “Tennessee is throwing the ball really well; they’ve been explosive, they have playmakers on the perimeter. For us, it’s trusting our technique and doing what we’ve done playing inside the scheme.”
Kelley Jones and DeAgo Brumfield both boast impressively low catch rates, with Jones’ 14.3% the lowest in FBS.
Defending the Vols will be much more difficult than any of the nonconference opponents faced. The Vols average 337.8 yards per game through the air with 14 yards per completion and 14 touchdowns. MSU can’t sell out to stop the pass either, as Tennessee has two running backs with more than 250 rushing yards each and seven combined touchdowns. It’s a complete offense, and one that the Bulldogs may just have to match themselves.
Pace and protection
The biggest defensive threat that Tennessee poses is on the defensive line. Despite replacing a handful of guys playing on Sundays now, the Vols still have an impressive pass rush that ranks sixth in the country in sacks and 26th in the country in rushing defense.
“To me, the way they’re able to get after the quarterback,” Lebby said when asked about what sticks out with Tennessee’s tape. “15 sacks, there’s constant pressure on the QB. They’ve given some things up, we’ll see if some of those guys come back in the secondary, but what sticks out is how they’re getting after the quarterback. And we’ve got to keep Blake clean to go play the way we want to play.”
Tennessee’s numbers pop out in the Georgia game as well, registering four sacks, seven tackles for loss and a fumble. However, the Vols struggled to get stops.
Georgia recorded 502 yards of total offense with a balanced approach. Gunner Stockton threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns while combining with the running backs for 198 yards on the ground with three scores.
The point here is that the Volunteers’ defense can be vulnerable when the pass rush doesn’t get home. Combined, opponents have had success moving the ball against them and have scored on 12 of 13 red zone trips against them.
The Bulldogs have their issues with penalties and pocket protection, but they’ve been able to move the ball and score regardless. Shapen has plenty of playmakers and the offensive line has gotten more push in the running game. They may have to keep pace, but they’re more than capable of hanging some points on the Vols as other teams have. Efficiency with drives will be the key to avoid falling behind early and chasing the game.
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