Mississippi State begins its SEC campaign against No. 15 Tennessee at home on Saturday.
To preview the matchup and gather an understanding of MSU’s opponent, The Dispatch exchanged questions with Ric Butler, a beat writer covering the Vols at Rocky Top Insider.
The Dispatch: What is the expectation this year after a comfortable win over MSU last year?
Ric Butler: I think the expectation here is that Tennessee is going to have to go on the road and beat a confident, motivated team on their own field. That’s certainly not an easy task, and I think MSU has the Volunteers’ full attention and respect after a strong start to the season.
You can’t prove it, but there’s been some speculation that Tennessee wasn’t fully locked in on Arkansas when they were upset in Fayetteville last season. True or not, that shouldn’t be the case this year. MSU has proven that it can take down a Top 15 team, and Tennessee knows that. I expect Josh Heupel’s group to be fully locked in this weekend. As the kids say (or maybe used to say?), they’ll understand the assignment here.
The Dispatch: What about the Bulldogs have the Vols focused on?
Butler: I think Tennessee knows that MSU brings an action-packed offense, similar to what the Vols have had. Some might look at State and think that the passing game is the engine, but I think it’s the run game that sets up the pass game. The battle in the trenches is always going to be important, but especially on the road. I’ve seen both Jeff Lebby and a few Tennessee players talk about a similar style in this game.
Defensively, I think that may give both sides a bit of confidence, having a chance to be ready for what’s thrown at them. On the flip side, which offense can unwrap a wrinkle that gives them an edge?
MSU’s secondary has been great at preventing explosive plays, and that’s obviously a place that Tennessee has been able to attack. I think Tennessee will try establishing the run early, using the three-man room of Star Thomas, DeSean Bishop, and Peyton Lewis. Perhaps that opens up the downfield pass a little more. They’re also going to have to protect the quarterback with the new edge rushers that State has unveiled this season.
The Dispatch: Is it fair to say Heupel’s offense is going to succeed regardless of who is under center? Or does that not give Joey Aguilar enough credit?
Butler: I give a ton of credit to Aguilar. He’s been a lightning rod for this Tennessee offense in a way that Joe Milton III and Nico Iamaleava weren’t. Both of those players were talented in their own right, but I think Aguilar is simply just a better fit with Heupel’s offense. Part of that is his veteran presence; Hendon Hooker was the same way.
I think that Heupel’s offense ultimately relies on a smart quarterback who is willing and able to throw the deep ball, something that Iamaleava lacked.
We knew Aguilar was a gunslinger quarterback at App State and wasn’t afraid to make any throw. The question was if that would translate to SEC play. So far, it has, and that’s a testament to his skill and mentality and the trust in him from Heupel. The system can make quarterbacks look better than they are, but I think you really have to credit Aguilar for what he’s been able to accomplish out of the gate.
The Dispatch: The pass rush numbers stand out, but what else stands out about the Vols’ defense this year? How have they coped without Jermod McCoy?
Butler: My answer here starts and ends with Colton Hood, the eye-opening cornerback from Colorado who transferred this past offseason. When Hood came in during the spring portal, it was expected that he would be a solid, versatile piece for Tennessee’s secondary. The thought was that he would fill in for McCoy, and potentially move around where needed. It didn’t take him long to become a lockdown corner, capable of taking the biggest matchups in the game.
Hood has only allowed four catches on 17 targets for 32 yards this season, including the game against Georgia. He’s exceeded all expectations and certainly made the tough draw of not having McCoy or Rickey Gibson III easier to deal with. As far as the secondary goes, Jalen McMurray at the STAR position has improved, and Boo Carter can still flash his talent, but it’s been Hood making the biggest impact so far. He’s already being looked at as a first-round draft candidate next year.
The Dispatch: What has to happen for Tennessee to lose this game?
Butler: I think both teams will find the end zone in this game. No matter how good Hood has been playing, Tennessee’s secondary has still been susceptible at times. If they’re trading punches throughout the game, Tennessee can’t afford to harm itself with penalties and turnovers. On one hand, that’s just going to fire up the sold-out crowd, but it’s also not ideal to give this MSU offense more opportunities to score and feed off momentum with an underdog mentality. I give MSU a ton of credit for what they’ve been able to do this season, and I think the future is bright in Starkville with Lebby. The other thing I’ll mention here is that it’s the first true SEC road start of Aguilar’s career. He’s a veteran, but he hasn’t played on the road in the SEC. I don’t think Aguilar will crumble or look shaky under the pressure. He hasn’t shown any signs of that this season, but it is a noteworthy storyline, nonetheless. If he has some growing pains in his first true SEC road game, it could make a big difference in the outcome.
The Dispatch: What has to happen for Tennessee to win this game?
Butler: Play clean football and win in the trenches.
Offensively, I think establishing the run and building an early lead would pave the path to victory. Tennessee has outscored opponents 83-7 in the first quarter this season, including games against Syracuse and Georgia. Heupel seems to have rediscovered his fastball when it comes to blitzing opponents out of the gate. With a lead, Tennessee can focus on establishing the ground game and using the play-action to get things going with the passing game. Chris Brazzell has been a superstar for the Vols this season, and I think he continues his hot start with an explosive play down the field.
Defensively, it’s the trenches again, whether that’s the interior or rushing the passer. From a pass rush standpoint, Joshua Josephs and Caleb Herring have been excellent for the Vols this season. Josephs, in particular, has been a machine. He can change a game plan in a hurry. Tennessee has been thin at D-line this season with injuries, but veteran Jaxson Moi could return this weekend. That would be huge for Tennessee.
If the Vols win in the trenches, stop the run and put pressure on the quarterback, I see that going a long way in helping them win on the road.
Butler’s prediction: Tennessee 35, Mississippi State 27
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