STARKVILLE — Mississippi State is not who we thought they were.
After a seemingly monumental upset of then-No. 6 LSU, Mike Leach’s inaugural squad in Starkville has nosedived in epic fashion with dismal losses to Arkansas and Kentucky over the past two weeks.
So what should be made of the Bulldogs’ latest demise in Lexington? Let’s dive right in:
Mississippi State has a quarterback problem
Will the real K.J. Costello please stand up? In a matter of three weeks, Costello has broken the MSU and Southeastern Conference single-game passing records, notched another school record for completions in a game and tossed nine interceptions — three of which were of the pick-six variety.
So what do the Bulldogs have in the Stanford import? Hard to say.
Costello captured the nation’s consciousness following his 623-yard, five-touchdown debut against LSU, but times have changed fast. Over his past eight quarters of play, he’s thrown seven interceptions, been benched once, averaged just 6.9 yards per completion and thrown just a single touchdown pass.
Will Rogers was OK in relief of Costello, completing 9 of 15 passes for 43 yards as he gave the offense a brief rhythm and a near-touchdown pass when Osirus Mitchell was stripped on the goal line. But to ask a redshirt freshman to mount a 14-point comeback on the road in his first college action is far from fair.
The reality is MSU hasn’t had any semblance of offensive continuity since it left Baton Rouge, and Costello has had ample opportunities to right the ship. Granted, the offensive line and receiving corps didn’t help his cause Saturday, but his leash is running short entering next week’s contest against No. 11 Texas A&M, if he’s even given the start at all.
Rogers is inexperienced, sure. However, if the MSU offense looks like it did against Kentucky after the first few drives when the Aggies come to town, expect Costello to be relegated to the bench once more and, perhaps, permanently.
What happened to the offensive line?
Entering the 2020 season, there were two consistent narratives surrounding the Bulldogs: the offensive line would be deep and talented, and the defense would be bad, like really bad. Well through two weeks, I’ll go ahead and put my foot in my mouth on both accounts.
I’ll get to the defense in a second, but the MSU offensive line was abysmal in Lexington Saturday. Costello and the MSU wide receivers deserve ample credit for the offensive issues against Kentucky, but without a chance to set his feet, the former Stanford signal caller wasn’t entirely at fault.
A Wildcats defense that had just four quarterback hurries this year tripled its season output with eight Saturday night. Kentucky also notched two sacks and five tackles for a loss, keeping MSU’s limited ground game to just 20 yards on 14 attempts.
Starting guard Greg Eiland was returning from injury, and center James Jackson was starting his first game this year in place of Cole Smith, but MSU’s offensive line has to do better for this offense to click.
Third down continues to be a problem
In MSU’s Week 1 win over LSU, the Bulldogs converted 50 percent of their third down conversions. Since then, the Bulldogs are a meager 8 of 31, or 26 percent, in losses to Arkansas and Kentucky.
The biggest problem in MSU’s third down attempts has been where they’ve occurred. Saturday, the Bulldogs were 1 of 9 on third down and nine or more yards, while they’re averaging 6.95 yards to go on a given third-down attempt over the past two weeks.
As noted, MSU’s air raid offense lives and dies by the rhythm it creates. The Bulldogs are scheming to tire out defenders, earn loads of yards after the catch and, eventually, catch the defense napping to take shots over the top. The problem is, MSU can’t get into that process when it’s consistently behind the sticks.
There are plenty of issues to shake out, but staying on time on first and second downs will have as much impact on MSU’s third down conversion rate as any play call.
Zach Arnett’s defense is a force to be reckoned with
For all the issues MSU’s offense is having, let’s close on a positive: This Bulldogs defense is legitimately good.
One week after Kentucky ran all over Ole Miss to the tune of 408 yards on the ground, Zach Arnett’s unit held the Wildcats to a meager 84 yards on the ground — 51 of which came on a Terry Wilson run early in the second quarter.
Although Wilson isn’t a world-beater in the pocket, and the Kentucky passing attack is mediocre at best, this MSU defense’s first three weeks have been nothing short of impressive. Following Saturday’s loss, the Bulldogs rank No. 5 in rush defense, No. 23 in passing defense, No. 12 in total defense and No. 30 in scoring defense nationally. Even more impressive, MSU sits behind only Georgia in the SEC’s total defense rankings, as they’re allowing just 285.7 yards per game.
In a matter of 21 days, MSU has become inconsistent, ineffective and borderline unwatchable on offense. But the Bulldogs defense deserves credit where credit is due. It’s not just one of the best units in the SEC; it’s one of the best in the country, and plenty of that is owed to Arnett.
Ben Portnoy reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @bportnoy15.
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