STARKVILLE — Ben Howland said it best after Mississippi State’s win against Ole Miss on Saturday.

“We have work to do,” the fifth-year head coach said of the Bulldogs’ chances at making the NCAA tournament for the second straight season.

MSU enters the Southeastern Conference tournament on the wrong side of the bubble in most bracketology predictions, but that could change with a win or two in Nashville this week.

Since the Bulldogs earned a double-bye by finishing as the SEC’s No. 4 seed, they will play either Florida, Ole Miss or Georgia in the SEC quarterfinals Friday, depending on results of earlier SEC tournament games. Howland told reporters Tuesday he expects it to be Florida, which stands as MSU’s most significant win of the season to this date. Make no mistake about it: A win is absolutely crucial.

The bottom line is this: If Mississippi State loses in the opening round of the SEC tournament, it’s not receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. If the Bulldogs win one game then lose in the SEC semifinals, MSU will be sweating come Selection Sunday but could remain in the conversation depending on the performance of other teams hovering around the bubble. Should MSU pick up two wins and make it to Sunday’s championship, it has to feel good about its chances of sneaking in, regardless of that game’s outcome. Obviously, MSU will guarantee itself an auto-bid if it wins the SEC tournament.

While the team will be (understandably) focusing on itself all week, its fans may want to keep an eye on other games around the nation. Below is essentially a rooting guide for Mississippi State fans. All of the listed scenarios don’t necessarily need to happen for the Bulldogs to receive an at-large berth, but the more that do, the more likely the Bulldogs are to get in with only one or two SEC tournament wins.

As a general rule of thumb, the path to the Big Dance is a lot easier if this week’s conference tournaments are won by a firmly established NCAA tournament team. Admittedly, it feels almost dirty to say this. One of the best parts of March is seeing all the upsets and Cinderella runs. Not for bubble teams, though. If you’re a fan of a team floating near the line, you hope the blue bloods use a sledgehammer and smash the glass slippers of would-be Cinderella teams to smithereens. Bid-stealers in smaller conferences can steal the heart of a nation. They’re also a bubble team’s worst nightmare.

Without further ado, here’s what to root for:

– Mississippi State: Well, duh. This is all pointless if the Bulldogs can’t at least get a win Friday, regardless of their opponent.

– If MSU can win Friday (and preferably Saturday) but can’t secure the SEC championship, the Bulldogs would want Kentucky, Auburn or LSU to win the tournament. Anyone else would be a bid-stealer, and Florida winning the tournament means the Bulldogs lose Friday.

– Root for Texas Tech to beat Texas on Thursday in the Big 12 tournament. While this feels like a play-in game, it’s conceivable Texas Tech could still get in should it lose to Texas, but the Longhorns are likely toast if they don’t win.

– Root for bubble floater Richmond to lose as early as possible in the Atlantic 10 tournament, preferably in the quarterfinals Friday or semifinals Saturday.

– In the Big East tournament, Xavier falling to DePaul on Wednesday would likely be the end of the Muskeeters’ tournament chances.

– NC State is one of the “bubbliest” bubble teams entering the ACC tournament, so losing to Pittsburgh on Wednesday would spell the end for its postseason hopes, and it may need two wins to be safely in.

– Cincinnati losing to UCF or USF on Friday in the American Athletic Conference quarterfinals would be titled bad news Bearcats for the Ohio-based school. Memphis falling against East Carolina Thursday would keep the Tigers on the wrong side of the bracket, and Wichita State suffering a loss to either UConn or Tulane might see Shocker fans sweat during the selection show.

– MSU fans might as well adopt California for two rounds in the Pac-12 tournament. Cal could be a best friend to the Bulldogs by beating Stanford on Wednesday, downing UCLA (Ben Howland’s former school) on Thursday and promptly making sure it doesn’t win the Pac-12 tournament after that. Arizona State or USC losing in its first game wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, either.

– In the Big Ten, Indiana miraculously falling to a hapless Nebraska team Wednesday would be a welcome sight for the Bulldog faithful. So would Ohio State beating Purdue on Thursday.

Hodge is the former sports editor for The Dispatch.