Moody’s Analytics releases GDP projections

I could talk about what Wall Street (Moody’s Analytics, to be specific) thinks of our economic future but here are the numbers that really matter for sure right now:

· 545 — the number of children separated from their parents at the US – Mexico border still in US custody and whose parents have so far not been found;

· 29.8 million — the number of people who will lose their health insurance if the Trump administration successfully convinces the Supreme Court to get rid of the ACA (Obamacare) during this year’s Supreme Court session (case #19-840/19-1019, to be considered by the SC on Nov. 10th);

· 226,345 — the number of people who have died of Covid-19 as of Friday, 10/23/20; a projected 385,000 by February 1;

· 77,640 — the number of new Covid-19 infections reported Thursday, 10/22 — the highest number of new cases reported in a day yet for the US. This does not bode well for the projection above. October 23’s number was even higher — over 79,000 (and Sunday, over 80,000).

· 45 — the number of states experiencing an increase in Covid-19 cases including eight states experiencing increases more than 500/day greater than 2 weeks, mostly in the upper Midwest;

· 5 — the number of Vice-President Pence’s staffers that have tested positive for Covid-19 as of Monday, October 26.

Further, over the weekend, Mark Meadows, President Trump’s Chief of Staff, said, “We are not going to control the pandemic.” Instead, both the President and Vice-President have chosen to help spread it by continuing to hold rallies where social distancing and masks are largely absent.

In view of the above, it actually does seem relevant to discuss the Wall Street projections if Democrats retain the House, flip the Senate and win the White House after all, since the pandemic has such a huge impact on the state of the economy.

Moody’s Analytics recently released projections for US GDP growth over the next four years under different scenarios.

· Democrats Sweep: +4.2%

· Biden wins/Congress split: +3.5%;

· Trump wins/Congress split: +3.2%;

· Republicans sweep: +3.1%.

There is still something you can do here at home — vote! In particular, we have the chance to make a change in one of our US Senate seats. Senator Hyde-Smith has consistently backed the President and has done nothing publicly to challenge his failure to develop a coherent national plan to combat coronavirus in this country. I urge you to cast your vote for Mike Espy, former Secretary of Agriculture, who is challenging Senator Hyde-Smith. Secretary Espy will work in a bipartisan way to help us contain the virus and reach that +4.2% growth that Moody’s predicts.

Paul Mack

Columbus

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