Believes administration’s poor handling of pandemic should guide votes

On Election Day — and the advent of peak flu season – here are the most critical numbers to think about in my opinion.

231,003 — the number of people who have died of COVID-19 through Sunday, 11/1/20, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center website.

99,784 — the number of new Covid-19 infections reported Friday, 10/30 — the highest number of new cases reported in a day yet for the US.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is currently projecting the number of COVID-19 deaths to reach 258,940 by Thanksgiving, November 26th.

With that in mind I went back to some letters I wrote in the past that contained IHME projections to compare those projections to the number of deaths that were actually observed. I found 3 such projections I could check. I list them below, first the date of the projection followed by the date the projection was for, the forecast number of deaths, and the actual number of deaths by that date:

· 4/2/20; forecast deaths by 4/7: 12,500; actual: 15,377

· 4/2/20; forecast deaths by 8/4: 81,000; actual: 157,131

· 7/1/20; forecast deaths by 10/1: 175,000; actual: 206,734

· 8/7/20; forecast deaths by 12/1: 295,000; actual: unknown

Every single forecast I have listed has been conservative. That is, it has underestimated the actual number later seen, and in the case of the 8/4/20 forecast, significantly lower than what actually occurred.

One more number: the forecast for January 20, 2021, Inauguration Day, is 372,031. My guess is that one will be low as well, perhaps very low, considering that it will occur right smack in the middle of flu season.

It is possible to do better — as many countries in the Pacific region of the world demonstrate. Taiwan, for example, has had only 563 cases total, with only 7 deaths for the entire year, despite neighboring China, the virus’ epicenter.

Obviously, we could do better. This administration, led by President Trump, rejecting the advice of qualified scientists like Dr. Fauci in favor of Dr. Atlas — who, while a doctor, has little to no expertise in this area. Incumbent Mississippi senatorial candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith supports the current administration nearly 100 percent of the time. Please consider voting for her opponent, former Mississippi Representative and Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Espy, as one who will vote responsibly in the interests of all Mississippians.

Paul Mack

Columbus

The Dispatch Editorial Board is made up of publisher Peter Imes, columnist Slim Smith, managing editor Zack Plair and senior newsroom staff.