On January 18, the Chair of the NATO Military Committee – Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer – stated that the Western world must prepare for a potential larger war with Russia, which would involve a “whole of society” approach and that “we have to realize it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why [NATO forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia.” On January 8, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, the Minister for Civil Defense of Sweden, stated that “there could be war in Sweden” and that citizens should be prepared to contribute to the national defense, including by joining civil defense groups. I believe potential conflict would not start out as “hot,” but rather “hybrid” in nature. Such hybrid warfare has been occurring with the use of Muslims by Russia against the West. When Russia first utilized migrants against Poland in 2015, many in America and Europe chastised Poland for defending her borders from this onslaught. Russia and Belarus are up to it again, sending these same people to Estonia, Lithuania, Norway, and Poland. The U.S. now views the use of Muslim migrants as Russian hybrid warfare.
On January 16, Russia utilized electronic warfare (based out of Kaliningrad Oblast) that jammed GPS in northeast Poland; according to Swedish Lt. Col. Joakim Paasikivi, this represents “Russian influence activities or so-called hybrid warfare.” With the start of NATO exercise “Steadfast Defender 2024,” we should be prepared to see more GPS jamming, in an attempt to disrupt – and test reactions to – such electronic warfare. Why jam GPS in Poland? The answer is a narrow strip of land, the Suwalki Gap, which is the border between Poland and Lithuania – with Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus on the two endpoints. The Suwalki Gap is 65 miles end-to-end, which Russia would likely attempt to seize in order to create a land bridge with its exclave and then divide the Baltic States from Poland.
If this were to occur, would we come to the aid of our Baltic allies or let them be swallowed by Moscow? If the latter, our respect and credibility would disappear – emboldening our adversaries. In this conflict, our domestic and foreign policies are intertwined. Domestically, we do this by securing our southern border – there has been an alarming rise in military-aged men from China detained at the border. I believe we are experiencing a similar wave of hybrid warfare, funded by Russia and China. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are securing their borders via the “Baltic Defense Line;” our politicians must realize that having a secure border is integral for our national security – this cannot be a partisan issue. Abroad, we do this by supporting Ukraine and our Baltic NATO allies – who know all too well Russia’s intent; establishing permanent American bases in eastern Poland and the Baltic States would help assure these strong American allies. This reality means that as a country, we must think long-term regarding foreign and domestic policies. Our leaders must put forth a well-articulated plan to the American people; certain folks in Congress must also understand this is not a binary – we are facing a multi-faceted assault.
If we halt our support, it will embolden Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea (who is selling missiles to Moscow and demolished the “Monument to the Three Charters for National Reunification” – a symbol of reconciliation with South Korea). It is my view that the war in Ukraine is part of a much larger war; these seemingly random conflicts – from Europe, Middle East, to Asia – are in reality part of a larger goal to displace America as the “indispensable nation.” Winning this war requires articulating why arming Ukraine is in our national security interest. This support must also include helping Kyiv develop a self-sufficient defense industrial base (DIB) – this means ramping up our own American DIB base. By developing a self-sufficient DIB, Ukraine will be able to produce its own weapons – and with the end of the war, serve as a net exporter of NATO interoperable ammunition and battle-tested know-how. American domestic and foreign policies are intertwined; let’s not dilly dally around.
About the author: Dr. Matthew Becker earned his Ph.D. in Political Science and masters in International Affairs. He has taught on the topic of politics and security issues at the University of Mississippi and was a Boren Fellow in Bosnia-Herzegovina. He is currently working on a project exploring Russian and Chinese influence operations in the Western Balkans. The views expressed are the authors own and do not represent the views of the university. He may be reached at: [email protected].
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