STARKVILLE — Last season, the Southeastern Conference sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament, including, for the first time since 2019, Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs, in Chris Jans’ first year as head coach, were ousted by Pittsburgh in the First Four in Dayton. Returning all five starters from that team, the Bulldogs are hoping for a longer March stay this season.
To get there, MSU will have to navigate another tough conference season. On Monday, the Bulldogs found out their home and away SEC opponents for 2023-24, with dates and times to be announced in the coming months.
Here are three takeaways from MSU’s schedule:
Many chances for resume-building home wins
From a fan standpoint, this is a tremendous home slate.
MSU is scheduled to host Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Georgia at Humphrey Coliseum next season.
That is five NCAA Tournament teams (Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee) and four teams that finished above the Bulldogs in last year’s conference standings. It will be challenging, but having these games at the Hump, with momentum around the program building, is a plus.
Looking at it with an NCAA Tournament lens, there are going to be a lot of chances for the Bulldogs to pad their March Madness resume.
Alabama (No. 4), Tennessee (No. 6), Arkansas (No. 22), Kentucky (No. 27) and Auburn (No. 32) all finished with higher KenPom rankings than MSU (No. 53). Many of those programs are expected to be good again this winter.
Wins against any of them will stand out to the NCAA Tournament committee come March.
Chances for resume killing road losses
On the flip side, MSU will avoid some of the SEC’s top road environments this year.
The Bulldogs will travel to Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, LSU and Florida.
No trip to Knoxville is a major plus. As is not having to go to Fayetteville. Still a challenging road slate, but a lot more manageable without those games.
A weaker road schedule, however, has a major caveat: There are more chances for slip-ups and resume blemishes.
Losses at Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky shouldn’t hurt the Bulldogs come tournament time. A road loss at South Carolina (No. 93 in NET last season) could be costly in March. As could a road loss at Ole Miss (No. 110, though expected to be better this season).
It will be crucial to MSU’s Tournament chances this winter for it to take care of its business on the road against lesser teams, while also trying to steal a game or two against another tournament-caliber opponent.
How Mississippi State gets to the NCAA Tournament
This question for MSU becomes what is it going to take to make back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 2008-09.
Last year, all eight SEC teams that played in the tournament finished with 20 wins. All but two, MSU and Arkansas, finished with 10 or more conference wins.
The Bulldogs and Razorbacks each finished with eight conference wins and were an 11-seed and an eight-seed, respectively.
More often than not, a 10-win SEC season, barring anything catastrophic happening in non-conference action, should get MSU in the tournament. Vanderbilt (22-15, 11-7 SEC) was an exception to that rule last year, but also had non-conference losses to Southern Mississippi, NC State and Grambling.
How can MSU get to 10 SEC wins? Let’s predict:
At home, MSU will beat Ole Miss, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Auburn, with losses to Alabama, Tennessee and Arkansas.
On the road, MSU will beat South Carolina, LSU, Florida and Missouri, with losses to Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Texas A&M.
Justin Frommer is the Mississippi State sports reporter for The Dispatch.
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