To call Sunday’s game a must-win for Mississippi State would be drastically understating the importance of the Bulldogs’ task.
Following a five-game winning streak that lifted MSU into a tie for second place in the Southeastern Conference, the Bulldogs have now lost five in a row and are in danger of falling onto the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble following Thursday night’s 17-point defeat at Auburn. MSU (20-10, 7-8 SEC) returns to Humphrey Coliseum to conclude the regular season against last-place Missouri (11-17, 2-13).
The Tigers have lost their last 10 games, though they did carry the lead into the fourth quarter Thursday night against Vanderbilt. There have been some bright spots — Hayley Frank is Missouri’s leading scorer, averaging 16.7 points per game, and she is among the SEC’s best 3-point shooters. Ashton Judd and Grace Slaughter both average double-digit scoring as well, as does do-it-all point guard Mama Dembele.
Dembele, a native of Spain, leads the conference with 6.5 assists per game and is also a force on the defensive end, ranking second in the SEC with 3.3 steals per contest. Despite a middling offense overall, the Tigers are second in the conference in 3-point percentage, trailing only undefeated and top-ranked South Carolina.
Missouri gets to the foul line less often than any other SEC team, with just 13.5 attempts per game, but their free throw percentage is the highest in the conference (76.5). Rebounding, on the other hand, has been an issue — the Tigers pull down by far the fewest offensive boards in the SEC, and are second to last in the conference in total rebounding. Their lack of size also manifests around the basket, as they block the fewest shots per game in the league.
Turnovers have also been a problem for Missouri, which coughs the ball up 16.4 times per game and allows 8.3 steals. The Tigers only force 13.8 turnovers on average, fewer than any SEC team except Tennessee.
Here are three keys to victory for MSU as the Bulldogs look to send their seniors out with a win in their last game at The Hump.
Close out on the shooters
Stop Missouri on the perimeter, and you’ve likely stopped the Tigers’ offense, or at least slowed it down considerably. Nearly 40 percent of the shots Missouri takes have come from behind the arc, mostly from Frank, Judd and Abbey Schreacke. Limiting teams’ production from deep, however, has been easier said than done lately for MSU, which allowed big games in the past week against Alabama’s Aaliyah Nye and Auburn’s Honesty Scott-Grayson. The Bulldogs will need to keep an eye on Frank and Missouri’s other shooters at all times and get around the screens the Tigers set for them.
Limit the turnovers
MSU turned the ball over 17 times against Auburn, which takes the ball away more than anyone else in the SEC, and Auburn scored 25 points off of those mistakes. Missouri is not nearly as prolific when it comes to forcing turnovers, but ball security has been an issue for MSU against just about everybody. As Bulldogs head coach Sam Purcell has said repeatedly, MSU needs to avoid being sloppy and stick to the simple passes rather than going for the big play.
Control the boards
Against an Auburn team that has struggled in the rebounding department, the Bulldogs still allowed 12 offensive boards in the first half alone as another worrisome trend continued. Missouri is even worse than Auburn on the offensive glass, so a similar performance for MSU on Sunday would be inexcusable. Jessika Carter, Erynn Barnum and company will need to keep Missouri’s second-chance opportunities to a minimum in order for the Bulldogs to get out to an early lead and maintain it.
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