Mississippi State is among the Southeastern Conference’s best in several offensive categories — second in batting average, on-base percentage and runs scored — but the Bulldogs will face their stiffest test yet this weekend.
No. 4 Tennessee is coming to Nusz Park for a three-game series, and the Volunteers boast the best pitching staff in all of college softball. Ashley Rogers led the way last year for a team that won both the SEC regular season and tournament titles and reached the Women’s College World Series for the first time since 2015, but Tennessee might be even better in the circle this year without her.
The Volunteers (30-6, 10-2 SEC) are once again atop the conference standings, led by spectacular sophomore Karlyn Pickens. In 112 ⅓ innings, Pickens is 15-3 with an ERA of 0.81 and 143 strikeouts. The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year threw her second career perfect game against Loyola Marymount in February.
Peyton Gottshall, in her second season in Knoxville after transferring from Bowling Green, is no slouch herself with a 1.26 ERA in 89 innings pitched. Opposing teams are batting a mere .177 against Tennessee pitching this season.
Kiki Milloy is the headliner for the Volunteers’ offense, but Tennessee still managed to win two out of three against Georgia last weekend with Milloy sidelined by a lower-body injury. In addition to her .355 batting average and .729 slugging percentage, Milloy is 20-for-22 on stolen base attempts. The Volunteers can still produce offensively without Milloy — Makenna Gibson, Rylie West, Laura Mealer and Sophia Nugent all have an OPS above 1.000.
Tennessee opened SEC play with a sweep of Missouri, outscoring the Tigers 21-2, then allowed just one run in a three-game sweep the following weekend at South Carolina. The Volunteers took the first two games at Auburn before dropping the finale, then got a three-run home run from Nugent in the sixth inning to pull ahead late and take the rubber match against Georgia.
Here are three keys to victory for No. 16 MSU (28-10, 8-7) to grab the upset in Starkville.
Be aggressive early in the count
Tennessee’s pitchers are tied for the SEC lead in strikeouts and have issued the second-fewest walks in the conference. So in addition to being tough to hit, the Volunteers pound the strike zone and work themselves into favorable counts. The Bulldogs draw the second-most walks in the SEC, but they might be better off swinging early if they get something over the plate. Once Pickens and Gottshall get to two strikes, MSU’s hitters will be at their mercy.
Pick your matchups
The Bulldogs’ pitching staff, led by fifth-year Aspen Wesley and sophomore Josey Marron, will need to have a good sense of how their pitches play against each batter in Tennessee’s lineup. As good as the Volunteers are offensively, there are a few hitters toward the bottom of their order who aren’t quite so scary, so keeping them off the basepaths feels like a must. If Tennessee can turn the lineup over and put runners on base for its run producers, MSU could easily find itself playing from behind — not an ideal scenario against Pickens and Gottshall.
Push the envelope a little bit
Runs could be at a premium this weekend, so when the Bulldogs do manage to get runners on base, MSU should pull out all the stops to bring them in. Whether that means putting runners in motion, reading balls in the dirt or taking an extra base on a hit, the risks are all worth taking against this pitching staff. Another scoring chance may not come around for another several innings.
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