Mississippi State has not lost a home series in Southeastern Conference play all season, and if the Bulldogs want to keep their chances of hosting an NCAA regional alive, that streak will have to continue against Missouri.
The Tigers (22-30, 8-19 SEC) are the conference’s worst offense no matter how one measures it. They are dead last in the SEC in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs scored, home runs and total bases, and they also strike out more than any team in the league. At No. 104 in the latest RPI rankings, Missouri is the only SEC team outside the top 50.
Outside of a home sweep against Florida in early April, the Tigers have not won a series in SEC play, and will need at least two wins plus some help to qualify for the conference tournament next week in Hoover, Alabama. Senior Trevor Austin is Missouri’s most dangerous bat, with a .293/.432/.547 triple slash and a team-high 11 home runs. Outside of Austin and Jackson Lovich, the Tigers’ lineup is not exactly replete with offensive threats.
The pitching has not been much better. Javyn Pimental (3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 innings) is Missouri’s most reliable starter, but he has not worked more than an inning in a game since Apr. 20 against LSU. Logan Lunceford and Carter Rustad lead the team in innings pitched, but Rustad got roughed up for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings last weekend against Auburn and Lunceford allowed five earned runs in four innings in his last start.
The Tigers have had MSU’s number of late, though, winning two out of three in Columbia in 2022 and also taking a series in Starkville in 2021 against the eventual national champions.
“I haven’t watched them a lot besides what I’ve seen during the year,” Bulldogs head coach Chris Lemonis said. “Everybody in this league is good. They’re still playing for a lot. I know it; I’ve been that team before. You’re doing everything you can and trying to stay motivated.”
Here are three keys to victory for MSU (34-18, 15-12) as the Bulldogs try to improve their postseason resume in the final weekend of the regular season.
Figure out the postseason pitching plans
Nate Dohm’s return Tuesday night against North Alabama, even though he went just two innings, was an encouraging sign for an MSU team preparing for postseason play for the first time in three years. Lemonis wants him at close to full strength for the SEC Tournament, so that could mean resting him this weekend or giving him another short outing, whether that comes at the beginning of Saturday’s game or in relief. With Khal Stephen presumably starting Thursday night and Jurrangelo Cijntje on Friday evening, those two would be lined up to pitch again on four days’ rest in Hoover.
Stay on the gas pedal
Last Saturday at Arkansas, the Bulldogs raced out to an 8-0 lead in the fourth inning but were held scoreless the rest of the way, hanging on for an 8-5 win. They were not so fortunate the next day, when they failed to score after taking a 6-0 lead in the third and let that lead get away in a 9-6 loss. Missouri’s offense may not be as potent as that of the Razorbacks, but MSU cannot be content with one or even two big innings early in the game. Leaving runners on base was also a big issue last weekend — the Bulldogs stranded 37 in the series, or more than 12 per game.
Treat each game with the importance it deserves
MSU played two of its most dominant games of the year in its last home series two weeks ago against Alabama, beating the Crimson Tide 13-3 on Friday and 8-1 on Saturday. But with a chance to sweep, the Bulldogs pitched poorly, played sloppily on defense and ran into a couple of outs on the basepaths in Sunday’s loss. Taking two out of three would keep MSU in the mix to host, but a sweep would help the Bulldogs breathe a lot easier when they make the two-hour trip to Hoover Metropolitan Stadium.
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