Following a four-point loss Tuesday night at Ole Miss that kept Mississippi State winless on the road, the Bulldogs have another Quadrant 1 opportunity in front of them Saturday night as they make the short trip east to visit No. 24 Alabama.
MSU lost 82-74 to the Crimson Tide in Starkville on Jan. 13, in a game the Bulldogs certainly had a chance to win had they not struggled so much from the free throw line. Led by a combined 58 points from Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Rylan Griffin, Alabama became the first — and so far only — Southeastern Conference team to come into Humphrey Coliseum and win.
Since then, the Crimson Tide (15-6, 7-1 SEC) have mostly kept on winning, taking over sole possession of first place in the conference. After a 20-point loss at Tennessee on Jan. 20, Alabama handed Auburn its first SEC loss, then put up 109 points last Saturday against LSU. On Wednesday night, the Crimson Tide trailed Georgia on the road by 14 at halftime before exploding for 58 second-half points in a comeback victory.
Sears is currently tied with the Volunteers’ Dalton Knecht for the SEC scoring lead at 20.1 points per game, and he is shooting 52.3 percent overall and 44.4 percent from 3-point range. Aaron Estrada, Griffin and big man Grant Nelson also average double figures for the best scoring offense in all of men’s college basketball, at 89.4 points per contest. Alabama has cracked the century mark in points six times this season.
The Crimson Tide jack up 3-pointers at by far the highest rate in the conference, attempting 29 per game, and they make them at a 38.8 percent clip, trailing only Kentucky among SEC teams. Alabama also tops the SEC in free throw percentage (MSU is dead last) and is fourth nationally in effective field goal percentage, which properly adjusts for the fact that 3-pointers are worth 1.5 times more than 2-point field goals.
Defense has been an issue for head coach Nate Oats’ team, which is 11th in the conference in both points allowed and opponents’ field goal percentage, but for the most part, the Crimson Tide have been able to simply shoot their way past those problems.
Here are three keys to victory for the Bulldogs (14-7, 3-5).
Guard the perimeter
MSU will need to deploy most of its defensive resources to Alabama’s outside shooters. In the last matchup, Crimson Tide sixth man Wrightsell, who has since moved into the starting lineup, was 5-for-9 from 3-point range, and his overall numbers from distance are actually slightly better than those of Sears. Even the 6-foot, 11-inch Nelson has attempted 78 3-pointers this year. The Bulldogs’ guards, namely Josh Hubbard, Shakeel Moore and Dashawn Davis, will need to stick to their men, and D.J. Jeffries and Cameron Matthews may find themselves far from the basket as well.
Take care of the basketball
Turnovers were a big part of MSU’s undoing in the loss to the Rebels — the Bulldogs committed 15 of them, which Ole Miss converted into 18 points. Against an offense as prolific as Alabama’s, any turnovers, particularly live-ball turnovers, will be costly. The Rebels managed just three fast-break points, but given as many opportunities, the Crimson Tide almost certainly would have more.
Don’t leave points at the line
When MSU met Alabama three weeks ago, the Bulldogs were just 4-for-10 at the free throw line in the first half, then knocked down 11 in a row before Smith, Matthews and Moore each missed two down the stretch. Since then, MSU has gone into a bit of a foul-shooting funk, never shooting above 60 percent in its next four games. Those woes appeared to be fixed against Ole Miss, but the Bulldogs struggled again at the line in the second half, with Matthews missing twice in the closing seconds.
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