Following a much-needed home win over Georgia on Wednesday night, Mississippi State is in must-win territory again as the Bulldogs make a Saturday night trip to face a Missouri team that is still in search of its first Southeastern Conference victory.
The Tigers (8-15, 0-10 SEC) won 25 games last year, finished 11-7 in conference play and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but Dennis Gates’ second year in Columbia has not gone nearly as well. Missouri took a bad loss to Jackson State in non-conference play and has not been able to break through for an SEC win. The closest call came on Jan. 13 against South Carolina, but the Tigers fell by two in overtime.
Four Missouri players average double-figure scoring, led by Shawn East II at 15.6 points per game. Fellow guard Tamar Bates, a transfer from Indiana, averages 14.2 points per contest, and two other former transfers — Noah Carter from Northern Iowa and Nick Honor from Clemson — are also offensive threats. Depth has been an issue for the Tigers, though, who have struggled to find scoring outside of that quartet.
Missouri is in the bottom half of the SEC in most statistical categories, but rebounding is the Tigers’ greatest weakness — they pull down 31.6 boards per game, the fewest in the conference. Gates’ team has the second-highest free throw percentage in the SEC, behind only Alabama, but Missouri gets to the foul line less frequently than any other team in the conference, with 16.3 free throw attempts per game.
The Tigers do a good job forcing turnovers (13.1 per game), which could be an issue against an MSU team that turns the ball over more than any other SEC team except LSU. Wednesday night’s game was a step in the right direction for the Bulldogs, who committed just 10 turnovers against Georgia.
Here are three keys to victory for MSU (15-8, 4-6) as the Bulldogs try again to lock up their first road win of the season.
Take care of the ball
MSU turned the ball over 15 times in a loss at Ole Miss on Jan. 30, then committed 18 turnovers four days later in a 32-point loss at Alabama. Limiting those turnovers was key in the win over Georgia, and Dashawn Davis’ performance in particular stood out, with eight assists to just one turnover. Davis, Josh Hubbard and Shakeel Moore will need to again emphasize ball security to counteract one of Missouri’s biggest strengths.
Dominate the first half
The Bulldogs would love to give themselves and their fans a stress-free night and blow the game open early, taking the home crowd out of the game. That starts on the defensive end, with players like Shawn Jones Jr. and Cameron Matthews locking up the Tigers’ guards. Offensively, Tolu Smith showed as much explosiveness Wednesday night as he has all season, and feeding him would be sound strategy against a Missouri team that has a 7-foot freshman in Jordan Butler — who has recently become a starter — but no other players taller than 6-foot-7.
Don’t give up any second-chance opportunities
Against the worst rebounding team in the SEC, MSU must limit the Tigers on the offensive boards. This is a prime opportunity for Smith and Matthews to have double-doubles, and KeShawn Murphy, who gave the Bulldogs’ offense a much-needed lift Wednesday night, should have his chances to pick up some rebounds as well. MSU is third in the conference in rebounding margin at +6.3, with Missouri in last by a huge margin at -5.7.
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