Even after losing four consecutive games, including home defeats to Florida and Kentucky teams that are among the bottom four in the Southeastern Conference standings, Mississippi State is still on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. For now.
At No. 40 in the NET rankings entering Tuesday, the Bulldogs were a No. 9 seed in the latest bracketology projections from ESPN’s Charlie Creme. But MSU’s margin for error is much thinner than it was two weeks ago, and a win Thursday night at Auburn would help everyone in maroon breathe a little bit easier.
It will not be a simple task against a Tigers team that is 13-3 at home and, like the Bulldogs, has a victory over defending national champion LSU on its resume. Auburn (17-10, 6-8 SEC) started 1-4 in conference play but has been a tough out since then, led by veteran guard Honesty Scott-Grayson.
Scott-Grayson is third in the SEC in scoring, averaging 17.8 points per game. The Tigers’ offense does not offer much beyond her, but their defense is among the conference’s best — only No. 1 South Carolina and Texas A&M give up fewer points on average than Auburn’s 57.5. They held the Aggies to 41 points in a win on Sunday, three days after they nearly completed a season sweep against LSU before falling by five in Baton Rouge.
The Tigers’ defense is predicated upon forcing turnovers. Auburn leads the SEC in turnovers forced per game with 21, a potential nightmare matchup for MSU considering how things have gone for the Bulldogs lately. Many of those are live-ball turnovers, with the Tigers recording 10.7 steals per contest.
Auburn’s offense, on the other hand, is near the bottom of the conference in most categories. Only Kentucky and Georgia score fewer points, and only Arkansas shoots the ball worse from the field. Texas A&M and Ole Miss are the only worse 3-point shooting teams in the SEC than the Tigers.
Here are three keys to victory for MSU (20-9, 7-7) as the Bulldogs look for a win in their final road game of the regular season.
Take care of the basketball
This is starting to sound like a broken record at this point, but MSU is coming off a loss at Alabama in which the Bulldogs committed 18 turnovers, leading to 23 points for the Crimson Tide. Against a team as adept at forcing turnovers as Auburn, MSU will have to be extra careful. Lauren Park-Lane has done a good job at cleaning up her mistakes after a rough outing at Ole Miss on Feb. 18, but Darrione Rogers turned the ball over seven times in the Alabama game. The Bulldogs absolutely have to let their possessions play out and end in shots for them to leave Neville Arena with a victory.
Win the battle on the glass
The Tigers are also among the worst rebounding teams in the SEC, with only Missouri and Kentucky pulling down fewer boards per game. But MSU has had trouble corralling defensive rebounds recently, leading to too many second-chance opportunities for their opponents. Jessika Carter and Erynn Barnum will need to box out Auburn’s rebounders and make sure the Tigers’ possessions end after the first shot.
Don’t be overly desperate
It felt at times that the Bulldogs were pressing against Alabama and letting the pressure of the skid — which was preceded by a five-game winning streak — get to them. MSU threw too many long passes that led to turnovers and tried to force the ball inside to Carter too often. The Bulldogs are certainly desperate for a win Thursday, but they need to play like it’s just any other game. If they can stay loose and run their normal offense, they have a good chance to earn their first victory in three weeks.
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