Mississippi State hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2007.
The 24th-ranked Bulldogs (5-2, 2-2 Southeastern Conference) will once again try to change that when they visit the No. 6 Crimson Tide (6-1, 3-1 SEC) at 6 p.m. Saturday.
For more on Alabama, The Dispatch spoke with Nick Kelly, Alabama beat writer for the Tuscaloosa News. Kelly is in his second season covering the Tide.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
How did Alabama look Saturday against Tennessee? Is it time to reconsider championship expectations for the Tide?
Kelly: They looked good in some ways. It’s not like it was all bad. They still lost by just a field goal in a really hostile environment. But how they started was not great, especially from a discipline standpoint. They just could not get out of their way in some ways. I think that’s the most concerning thing — just how undisciplined they looked. Seventeen penalties, a program record for a game. Alabama was fielding a punt that they should have just let go, and then a guy tried to touch it, and Tennessee recovered. Moments like that were baffling a little bit. They were down 28-10, and they rallied back. The offense actually looked pretty dang solid. They weren’t perfect — they had some mistakes at times — but overall, the offense was solid. But the defense, that was one of the worst performances we’ve seen from them in a while — granted, against a very, very good Tennessee offense. As far as expectations, championship hopes, things like that, they will tell you their goals are still intact. It’s similar to last year: They lost that game to A&M and then rolled from there. They didn’t lose again until the national championship game. So that could still happen. But if they’re going to go on a run, because they really can’t afford another loss — never has there been a two-loss College Football Playoff team — then Alabama’s going to need to fix some things to get on that path of winning and making sure that they don’t have any more mistakes. Now, the margin of error is small.
Apart from the loss, Alabama has looked vulnerable against Texas and Texas A&M. Arkansas, too, made it close at one point. What has seemed to go wrong for the Tide in those games?
Kelly: I think it’s just beating themselves. Penalties were a problem in that Texas game, too. Texas A&M — four turnovers on offense. It’s just mistakes. Alabama doesn’t lack in talent. It’s not that they just don’t have the same level of talent. That’s one thing: When you just are outclassed from a talent standpoint, that’s tough to overcome. The talent’s there; it’s just a matter of making sure that they play disciplined. Defensively, there have been some concerns with pass coverage, especially in this game. Overall, they still have good players. I’m not concerned as much about that as much as I am just that they have to be disciplined. As long as they can, I think it’ll fix a lot of problems they’ve had in those games.
Mississippi State’s offense really struggled at Kentucky last week and, of course, was shut down by Alabama last year in Starkville. How does Alabama’s 2022 defense match up with the Air Raid?
Kelly: It seems to be that Nick Saban somewhat has it figured out. It doesn’t mean that that can’t change this year. I don’t know if it’s specific to the Air Raid or what it might be, but Alabama seems to have the Bulldogs’ number. This Alabama defense, I thought, was better than last year’s. This past week had me maybe reconsidering that, but up until this Tennessee game, I thought this Alabama defense was better than the 2021 team, and that team kept Mississippi State to nine points. Of course, Will Rogers got hurt in that game, so that probably limited him some. I feel reason to believe this defense can respond and limit Mississippi State to some extent. I think Will Rogers is going to give them a run for their money. He’s a good quarterback. Another year under his belt, I think, is going to help. But Alabama coming off a loss is a tough team to beat.
Mississippi State has had a good secondary but has been vulnerable against the run. Can Jahmyr Gibbs, Jase McClellan and Alabama run and score at will Saturday, or will MSU’s defense be able to limit them?
Kelly: If Mississippi State’s defense isn’t good against the run, it could be a long day. Jahmyr Gibbs is just getting better and better each week. The last three games in a row, he’s had over 100 yards. He scored three rushing touchdowns against Tennessee, and that’s a Tennessee run defense that was one of the top 10 in the country. Jahmyr Gibbs is going to be tough to corral, and then just when you think you have him corralled, Jase McClellan is explosive, too. McClellan had an 80-yard run against Texas. The two of them together is a handful for most teams, especially if you can’t defend the run well.
If you’re comfortable making a prediction, how do you see Saturday’s game playing out?
Kelly: I think Alabama’s going to win, just because they simply don’t lose after a loss. It doesn’t mean that can’t change. The streak was just snapped of 15 years of Alabama beating Tennessee, so things can change. Nick Saban does a really good job of preparing his teams after a loss and pushing the right buttons. I’m going to guess that Alabama wins by at least two, maybe three touchdowns. I could see it being a case where Alabama scores 30, 40 points, and Mississippi State maybe gets to two, maybe three touchdowns — maybe a 38-17, 38-20 kind of score.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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