STARKVILLE — If Vic Schaefer didn’t know better, he would have thought someone mixed up the statistics from the past two years.
On the surface, it’s pretty hard to distinguish the differences between the 2014-15 Mississippi State women’s basketball team and the 2015-16 squad.
The similarities begin on the surface. MSU (24-6) has earned the No. 3 seed for the SEC tournament for the second-consecutive season. The Bulldogs realized that goal thanks to a second-consecutive 11-5 finish in the regular season.
The similarities continue if you go deeper. MSU placed at least one player on the SEC’s All-Defensive team (Martha Alwal, Dominique Dillingham) and on the All-Freshman team (Victoria Vivians and Morgan William last season, Teaira McCowan) in each of the past two seasons.
As a team, MSU is shooting just about the same percentage from the field this season (40.5) at the same juncture last season (40.3). It also is holding opponents to nearly the same shooting percentage from the field (37.1 vs. 36.9) and grabbing just about the same number of offensive rebounds (17.6 vs. 17.4).
But Schaefer hopes those similarities won’t get in the way tonight when MSU tries to chart a different path in the SEC tournament.
“I think now we have some kids who have a little experience and the taste of playing on Friday night and getting upset and beat,” Schaefer said. “I think they would like to have a chance to play on Saturday and Sunday, too.”
MSU will get that chance at approximately 7:30 tonight when it takes on 11th-seeded Vanderbilt (18-13) at Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.
The winner will play the winner of the game between seventh-seeded Tennessee and second-seeded Texas A&M at approximately 6:30 p.m. Saturday (ESPNU). The championship game will be at 1:30 p.m. Sunday (ESPN). The champion earns the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
MSU enters the tournament a younger team than the one that arrived in North Little Rock, Arkansas, as a surprise No. 3 seed. A year ago, the Bulldogs blended the experience of seniors Alwal, Kendra Grant, Jerica James, and Savannah Carter with the youth of Vivians and William and an emerging sophomore class of Dillingham, Breanna Richardson, Ketara Chapel, and Chinwe Okorie.
That group helped MSU set a program record with 26 wins entering the SEC tournament. MSU had one of its best starts to any game last season against Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. The Bulldogs built a 15-point lead before Makayla Epps (game-high 31 points) rallied the Wildcats for a 76-67 victory. The setback played a part in MSU falling to a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament and getting sent to play in Durham, North Carolina. No. 4 seed Duke capitalized on the home-court advantage to beat MSU 64-56 in the second round.
This season, MSU doesn’t have the luxury of going to grizzled veterans on the bench. Still, Schaefer said he has been pleased with the progress of the Bulldogs’ young players. In fact, he said their maturation has been the biggest key to the team’s success this season.
Schaefer, who was named SEC Coach of the Year last season, also credited Vivians (first-team All-SEC), Dillingham, and McCowan for earning their all-league honors. For Dillingham, Schaefer said the All-Defensive team honor was “two years late.” He also said the 5-foot-11 junior doesn’t take any plays off and is a catalyst for a lot of what the Bulldogs do.
That shouldn’t be surprising because Dillingham leads the league in minutes played (SEC games only) at 38.4. Schaefer said Tuesday that total was “obscene,” but it is a credit to her that she does so many things to help the Bulldogs go.
In trying to find ways the Bulldogs could go a little harder or more efficiently as they enter arguably the toughest stretch of the season, Schaefer said fast-break points and offensive rebounds are the biggest potential areas of growth. He said MSU can increase its scoring if it gets out and pushes tempo more, but injuries to William and a recent concussion to freshman Jazzmun Holmes have limited the team’s ability to do that.
Schaefer also said the Bulldogs can do a better job converting stickbacks to try to realize an eight-point improvement. That total is key because four of the team’s six losses, including ones to nationally ranked Texas, South Carolina, and Texas A&M, have been by six points or less.
Unfortunately, those losses have left MSU in a similar position to the one it faced last season. Last season, MSU had a Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) of 29 as it awaited the announcement of the 64-team NCAA tournament field. According to NCAA figures last updated Wednesday, MSU’s RPI was 29. RealTimeRPI.com had MSU with a Strength of Schedule (SOS) of 70. A year ago, it was 73.
That’s part of the reason why MSU’s fortunes in Jacksonville are so important. Three victories in three days would give MSU its first SEC tournament title and the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Two wins, especially one against No. 15 Texas A&M in the semifinals, could push the Bulldogs past the Aggies in the race for a top-16 seed.
Charlie Creme, ESPN’s women’s college basketball bracketologist, had Texas A&M and Syracuse as the last teams in his top 16 for his NCAA tournament field. A victory against Texas A&M would help cancel out a 64-58 loss to the Aggies on Feb. 11 in College Station, Texas.
That would be a development Schaefer would welcome at this time of the year.
Follow Dispatch sports editor Adam Minichino on Twitter
Adam Minichino is the former Sports Editor for The Commercial Dispatch.
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