JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Friday was a good day for the Mississippi State women’s basketball team.
No. 16 and third-seeded MSU took care of its business Friday night with a 63-46 victory against 11th-seeded Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals of the Southeastern Conference tournament at Veterans Memorial Arena.
The victory pushed MSU (25-6) into the semifinals of the event for the fourth time in program history, and first since 2010.
MSU received some good news before it took the court when it learned No. 21 Miami defeated No. 14 Florida State 74-56 in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament in Greensboro, North Carolina.
The good news didn’t stop there. After MSU defeated Vanderbilt, Washington upset No. 11 Stanford 73-65 in the quarterfinals of the Pacific-12 Conference tournament in Seattle.
The losses figure to help MSU as it tries to earn a chance to play host to the first and second rounds of the NCASA tournament for the first time in history.
According to espnW’s Charlie Creme, though, MSU still has work to do.
“It helps because they still have games to play and Florida State doesn’t,” Creme said, “but there are a couple of other teams — Syracuse, DePaul — (ahead of MSU). Those are probably the two key ones.”
Creme, espnW’s NCAA tournament bracketologist, was in Jacksonville on Friday to dissect the winners and losers on a busy day in college basketball. He spent most of the day tweaking the order of his top 16 teams. Those 16 teams figure to be in line for chances to play host to the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament.
As a result of FSU’s loss, Creme said he moved Syracuse to No. 15 and DePaul to No. 16 in his version of the top 16 seeds. Syracuse defeated North Carolina State in the ACC tournament on Friday to solidify its position. DePaul, which is the top seed for the Big East Conference tournament, won’t play until Monday in the event in its home city of Chicago.
Creme said he dropped FSU to No. 17 in his seeding of the top teams. He said MSU is No. 18. Creme’s latest projection for the 64-team NCAA tournament had MSU as a No. 5 seed going to FSU in Tallahassee, Fla.
Creme also dropped FSU to a No. 5 seed, while Kentucky’s victory against Florida in the SEC tournament moved it up to a No. 3 seed. Stanford also moved up to a No. 4 seed, Creme said.
But Stanford’s fate likely changed after it lost to Washington. Ranked No. 13 in Creme’s top 16, the loss could be another plus for MSU as it attempts to stay at home in a return to the NCAA tournament for a second-consecutive season.
Creme said FSU likely would edge MSU if it comes down to a team-to-team comparison for a chance to be a host team in the NCAA tournament because it has a better non-conference strength of schedule. Ratings Percentage Index, or RPI, and Strength of Schedule (SOS) are factors the NCAA tournament selection committee uses to determine its 64-team field.
According to information updated Friday by the NCAA and RealTimeRPI.com, FSU had a RPI of 12 and a SOS of 22. The RPI is from the NCAA, while the SOS is from RealTimeRPI.com. Stanford was No. 7 in RPI and No. 6 in SOS. MSU had a 28 RPI and a 72 SOS.
If that scenario sounds familiar, you’re right. Last season, MSU had a RPI of 29 as it awaited the announcement of the 64-team NCAA tournament field. The Bulldogs’ SOS was 73. Those numbers factored into MSU receiving a No. 5 seed and being sent to Durham, North Carolina, where it lost to host Duke in the second round.
MSU looked to be in strong shape this season. The Bulldogs were just outside the top 10 in the first two NCAA Reveals, which were designed to give women’s basketball fans a look at which teams were leading the pack. An 83-60 loss to Kentucky on Feb. 18 in Starkville dropped MSU from the group below the top 10 that also was being discussed for the third and final NCAA Reveal.
“Florida State’s schedule is so much better,” Creme said. “If you win two games (at the SEC tournament) and get to the final, that might be enough to do it, although they still kind of need a DePaul loss and/or Syracuse losing or getting blown out (Saturday).”
The only bad news MSU received Friday was Tennessee’s 70-60 victory against No. 15 Texas A&M in the quarterfinals. Creme said a chance to beat Texas A&M, who entered the game with a RPI of 17, would have helped MSU a little more than an opportunity to defeat Tennessee (RPI of 26 and the nation’s best SOS) for a second time. Texas A&M edged MSU 64-58 on Feb. 11 in College Station, Texas. MSU beat Tennessee 65-63 in overtime on Jan. 28 in Starkville. That win was the Bulldogs’ first in the 37-game history of the series.
Still, Creme said a win is a win and staying alive always helps a team more than a loss.
“I think you really want to focus on the wins part at this point in the season when making these very minute differentiations,” Creme said. “DePaul beating A&M (80-66 on Dec. 12, 2015) and being able to have a common opponent in there is helpful for DePaul. Mississippi State’s real only shot (to earn a top-16 seed) is to get to the final (of the SEC tournament) and then hoping the chips fall in the ACC and the Big East. The losses would have to be early.”
When asked what MSU could do to improve its stock for future NCAA tournaments, Creme said it is an “art” to make a schedule that helps your team, but he said a stronger non-conference schedule helps you for postseason consideration.
“I think what we have all learned, anybody who has followed this in the last few years, is that the schedule is important,” Creme said. “You have got to go out and play a few games outside the league. It doesn’t have to be a bunch of top-10 teams. You can play top-40 teams. Get a(n Arkansas) Little Rock or an Arkansas State, some of the upper echelon Conference USA teams, maybe a Liberty, even. You don’t have to try to get UConn to come to Starkville or go to a Pac-12 school. You can do little things with the schedule.”
Entering Saturday’s action, MSU had eight wins against teams with RPIs of 181 or higher, including five of 254 or higher. Those wins work against the games MSU played against Texas (RPI of 6), Florida Gulf Coast (63), and South Florida (25). MSU lost to Texas in Austin, Texas, beat Florida Gulf Coast in Puerto Rico, and defeated USF in Jacksonville.
Follow Dispatch sports editor Adam Minichino on Twitter @cdispatch.com
Adam Minichino is the former Sports Editor for The Commercial Dispatch.
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