The Mississippi State men’s basketball team can no longer reasonably rely on luck to make the NCAA tournament.
Last week, Bulldogs coach Ben Howland said wins over Vanderbilt, No. 5 Auburn and Texas A&M plus a trip to the Southeastern Conference tournament finals could allow his team to “get lucky” and secure an at-large bid.
MSU beat Vanderbilt on Saturday, but after Wednesday’s overtime loss to the Tigers, the automatic bid that comes with winning the SEC tourney is just about the Bulldogs’ only shot at returning to the Big Dance.
Still, Mississippi State (17-13, 8-9 SEC) has to finish out the regular season at 7:30 p.m. Saturday against a Texas A&M team that has been streaky — to say the least — all season.
The Aggies have righted the ship lately by winning their past three games, including an impressive 87-71 win Wednesday at Alabama, a mercurial team in itself. Wins against Georgia and at Ole Miss preceded the win over the Crimson Tide as A&M has won four of its past five games.
But before that, the Aggies went on an eight-game losing streak, including games against each of the SEC’s top five teams per KenPom.com: Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU (twice), Tennessee and Auburn. South Carolina and Missouri also knocked off A&M during the skid.
It was a down stretch that followed — if not perfectly mirroring — an eight-game winning streak for A&M. The Aggies faced little competition in their nonconference games but started off 4-0 in SEC play, including a home win over Arkansas.
But despite A&M’s instability, the Aggies are practically right in line with the Bulldogs in most metrics. KenPom has Mississippi State No. 50 overall and Texas A&M No. 59; in the NCAA NET rankings, MSU and A&M are back to back at Nos. 56 and 57.
That makes Saturday’s game at Reed Arena in College Station another Quadrant 1 contest for the Bulldogs, their 12th so far this season. But Mississippi State is just 2-9 in such games against top competition, a mark likely to keep MSU out of the tournament.
In a microcosm of the frustrating 2021-22 season, Howland’s team took one of the nation’s top squads to overtime after coming back from a massive deficit. But Auburn pounded Mississippi State in the extra period en route to a 81-68 win.
The Bulldogs went 0 for 13 from 3-point range, the second time in three games they failed to make a single 3-pointer after going 0 for 14 on Feb. 23 against South Carolina. MSU made only one 3 against Vanderbilt in a 74-69 win.
Mississippi State’s 3-point conversion rate has dropped to 29.4 percent, one of the lowest marks in the country. Only 12 Division I teams — including IUPUI, which had five available players at the end of the year — shoot the ball worse from deep, and the three teams directly ahead of the Bulldogs are Cal Poly, SIUE and Florida A&M.
At 32.4 percent, Texas A&M is also a below-average 3-point shooting team. At No. 24 in the country, the Aggies are just one spot below the Bulldogs in terms of offensive rebounding.
A&M forces turnovers at the seventh-highest rate in the country, including a 14.4 percent steal rate topped only by LSU. But while the Aggies are strong on the offensive glass, they’re one of D-I’s worst teams when it comes to giving up offensive rebounds to their opponent, hurting their defensive rating.
A&M’s defense ranks No. 46 in KenPom, while its offense sits at No. 73. The Bulldogs had been the opposite — offense outranking defense — all season, but after Wednesday’s game, MSU’s offense and defense both sit at 57th nationally.
Quenton Jackson leads A&M with 14.4 points per game, Henry Coleman III averages 10.6 points per game, and Tyrece Radford scores 10.4 points per contest. No other Aggies are in double figures.
Mississippi State has one just road win all season — Feb. 20 at Missouri — while A&M is 4-4 at Reed Arena in SEC play. If the Bulldogs can close the regular season with a victory, it could provide some momentum headed into the conference tournament next week in Tampa, Florida.
Regardless of Saturday’s result, though, MSU’s slim path back to the Big Dance will be the same.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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