The sky is not falling on the Mississippi State football program, but the Bulldogs’ season is shaping up to be much more in line with what external prognosticators predicted than what those closer to the team thought of them.
MSU was picked to finish last in the Southeastern Conference Western Division in the media preseason poll, and both Athlon Sports and Sports Illustrated had the Bulldogs 11th in their SEC power rankings after media days.
There was reason to expect some regression from last year’s 9-4 campaign with first-time head coach Zach Arnett replacing the late Mike Leach and several assistant coaches new to the staff. But there was also plenty of reason for optimism — MSU returned more than half of its starters on offense, including four on the offensive line, as well as stalwart linebackers Jett Johnson and Nathaniel “Bookie” Watson.
The Bulldogs limped into their bye week with a less-than-inspiring win over Western Michigan to even their record at 3-3, and they have lost their first three SEC games for the first time since 2011. Injuries have piled up in all three phases, and a season-defining stretch of three road games in four weeks looms ahead.
Apart from rough showings against LSU and Alabama, the offense has adjusted reasonably well to new coordinator Kevin Barbay’s scheme, and the special teams has remained strong. Defensively, though, MSU has struggled to get to the quarterback, stop the run and cover receivers in the open field.
Offense
The knock on Will Rogers entering his senior season was that he was just a system quarterback who could only succeed in Leach’s “Air Raid” offense. While that has been proven true to an extent, the Bulldogs’ signal-caller has shown an ability to connect on deep balls in play action and even extend plays with his legs.
That said, Rogers’ performance in a 41-14 loss to LSU on Sept. 16 stands out for the wrong reasons given the Tigers’ subsequent struggles defensively, particularly in the secondary. Rogers looked out of sync with his receivers for much of that game, completing just 11 of 26 passes for 103 yards. He followed that up with a career-high 487 passing yards a week later at South Carolina, with 256 of those yards going to Lideatrick “Tulu” Griffin.
Rogers looked shaky again the following week against Alabama, throwing three interceptions, but was solid last Saturday against the Broncos before leaving the game in the fourth quarter with a left shoulder injury. Arnett, speaking at the Memphis Touchdown Club on Monday evening, said Rogers and running back Jo’Quavious “Woody” Marks — who twisted his leg in the second quarter Saturday — are both “doing fine” and being evaluated daily.
Saturday was also something of a coming-out party for backup quarterback Mike Wright, a Vanderbilt transfer who started 11 games with the Commodores over the last two years but had thrown just one pass in his first five games as a Bulldog.
Wright completed seven of 10 passes against Western Michigan, but MSU is still better off using him primarily as a runner. He had a rushing touchdown for the third-straight game and can evade pressure and escape the pocket significantly better than Rogers.
Marks has taken on a bigger role in the Bulldogs’ new offense and started the year with back-to-back games with 100-plus yards, but has seen his workload diminish recently as he deals with leg injuries. That has led to more opportunities for freshman Seth Davis, who scored his first collegiate touchdown Saturday, and junior-college transfer Jeffery Pittman, who provided a big moment with the game-winning touchdown in overtime on a screen pass against Arizona.
The receivers’ room has battled injuries, but Griffin is far and away MSU’s leading receiver thanks to his record-setting night against South Carolina. Justin Robinson has missed the last two games, while Zavion Thomas was not fully healthy until the start of SEC play. Freddie Roberson had a big day against the Broncos in Robinson’s absence, and freshman Creed Whittemore found the end zone for the first time since the season opener.
Up front, the Bulldogs have come a long way in run blocking and overcome some early struggles in pass protection. The offensive line did not surrender a sack against Western Michigan in its best game of the season.
Defense
The first cracks started to show in the second half of the Arizona game, when Wildcats quarterback Jayden de Laura found open receivers deep down the field time and time again. That proved to be the beginning of a worrisome trend.
It’s one thing to allow LSU’s Jayden Daniels or South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler to have a big game. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe is becoming more comfortable each week as the Crimson Tide’s first-year starter. But getting picked apart by Hayden Wolff, Western Michigan’s third-string quarterback, should set off all kinds of alarm bells.
MSU’s secondary returned just one starter, cornerback Decamerion Richardson, and the safeties in particular were lacking in experience outside of Shawn Preston Jr. The Broncos’ receivers continued to find open space in zone coverage and win their matchups in man coverage.
Wolff, who completed 27 of 35 passes for 262 yards with three touchdowns, mostly had as much time as he needed to throw because Western Michigan picked up the Bulldogs’ blitzes. Nathan Pickering, Jaden Crumedy and Deonte Anderson have held their own up front, but the defensive line has been ravaged by injuries perhaps more than any other position group.
Johnson and Watson are still cleaning everything up in the middle, with Johnson leading the SEC in tackles and Watson third. But no level of the defense has shown the speed necessary to keep up with the conference’s best offenses. The Bulldogs are 11th in the SEC in total defense, allowing nearly 400 yards per game, and 12th in scoring defense.
The path to bowl eligibility
Assuming MSU wins its final non-conference game against Southern Miss on Nov. 18 — likely safe considering the Golden Eagles are 1-5 with their lone win against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent — the Bulldogs need two SEC victories to reach a bowl game for the 14th consecutive year.
The next opponent, Arkansas, may be MSU’s best chance. The Razorbacks have lost four straight games and may well be riding a five-game skid by the time MSU arrives in Fayetteville, with a trip to Alabama coming up this Saturday. Auburn is also winless in SEC play and plays a pair of ranked foes in LSU and Ole Miss before MSU visits on Oct. 28.
Kentucky, which comes to Davis Wade Stadium on Nov. 4, started 5-0 before a blowout loss last weekend to No. 1 Georgia, but the Bulldogs have won their last six home games against the Wildcats in their annual cross-division matchup. Texas A&M and Ole Miss both look strong, although the Aggies lost quarterback Conner Weigman for the season to an injury against Auburn on Sept. 23.
What’s less certain is how new athletic director Zac Selmon will measure success – or lack thereof – for a program in transition. Arnett may need six wins to keep his job after being named full-time head coach three days following Leach’s death last December. And if the defense does not make drastic strides in the second half of the season, coordinator Matt Brock’s job may be in jeopardy as well.
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