STARKVILLE — In three seasons under Mike Leach, Mississippi State has developed a clear line of demarcation.
Score more than 30 points, and MSU is almost certain to win. Fail to hit that benchmark, and the odds aren’t good.
Mississippi State (7-4, 3-4 Southeastern Conference) is 14-0 under Leach when scoring at least 30 points, which has happened in all seven of the Bulldogs’ wins this season.
But MSU is just 4-17 when scoring fewer than 30 points.
Two of the wins came in 2020 — a 24-17 win over Vanderbilt and a 28-26 Armed Forces Bowl defeat of Tulsa. Two more came in 2021 — a 24-10 defeat of NC State and a 26-22 win over Texas A&M.
This year, MSU is 0-4 when scoring fewer than 30 points, not even reaching 20 in any of its losses. In wins, the Bulldogs have been prolific, scoring 39 or more points each time.
While Mississippi State has had little problem scoring — its scoring offense ranks No. 33 in FBS — its inability to win low-scoring games of late is a concern.
Rogers’ win/loss splits stark in 2022
In Mississippi State’s seven wins, Will Rogers is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
In the Bulldogs’ four losses, Rogers’ struggles rate him among the worst passers in FBS.
It’s a sign Rogers’ true ceiling remains somewhere in between.
The junior is coming off a 30-for-37, 301-yard, five-touchdown performance Saturday against East Tennessee State. He has thrown 29 touchdown passes — more than four per game — in MSU’s wins this season against just three interceptions.
Rogers is the 33rd-rated quarterback in FBS in victories, throwing for 366.4 yards per game — second most in the country.
But in losses, the discrepancy is severe.
Rogers has thrown just three touchdown passes and two interceptions in Mississippi State’s four losses. He averages 227.3 yards per game and a completion percentage of 56.8 percent.
Most quarterbacks, of course, play worse in losses. And Rogers has faced some strong teams in the Bulldogs’ defeats: Georgia, LSU, Alabama and Kentucky, all of whom boast top-35 defenses.
But Rogers will have to be much more consistent to get Mississippi State on the level of those SEC opponents.
Bulldogs getting stops when it matters
On East Tennessee State’s opening drive Saturday, backup quarterback Baron May ran 7 yards to pick up a first down on third-and-5.
For the rest of the game, though, the Buccaneers went just 1 for 12 on third-down conversions.
The level of competition wasn’t the highest, but Mississippi State’s defense showed its improvement on third down once again.
Last season, the Bulldogs allowed conversions on 41.57 percent of opponents’ third-down tries, which ranked 95th in FBS.
This year, MSU has been significantly better.
Opponents are 54 for 154 against Mississippi State on third down, a 35.06 percent mark that is tied for 38th in the country.
Additionally, MSU’s fourth-down defense has remained strong. The Bulldogs tied for 17th last season and currently sit 22nd nationally, allowing conversions on only 40.91 percent of attempts.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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