The Mississippi State men’s basketball team knows precisely what Vanderbilt is capable of.
The Commodores showed the Bulldogs on Feb. 13, 2021, blowing out MSU 72-51 at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville. Just 5-10 going into the game, Vandy scored 45 points in the first half alone.
Even Jan. 9, 2021, in Nashville, Mississippi State had trouble with the Commodores. The Bulldogs eventually pulled out an 84-81 win, but it wasn’t easy.
And there’s no reason to expect Saturday’s game between Mississippi State (16-12, 7-8 Southeastern Conference) and Vanderbilt (14-13, 6-9 SEC) to be easy, either.
MSU will face a surprisingly resilient Vandy team for the first time this season at noon Saturday at Humphrey Coliseum. The Commodores have been competitive all year despite their middling record and have notched a couple big wins in SEC play.
Saturday’s contest could have been a big game for Mississippi State were it not for Wednesday’s 66-56 loss at South Carolina. Coach Ben Howland said afterward the Bulldogs realistically can’t make the NCAA tournament as an at-large team and that the automatic bid for winning the SEC tournament is practically their only chance.
Howland did say MSU could “get lucky” should it win all of its final three games and reach the finals of the conference tournament, which will be played March 9-13 in Tampa, Florida. That necessitates beating No. 2 Auburn and Texas A&M to close out the regular season, not to mention a win Saturday.
The Bulldogs will be tasked with defeating a Vanderbilt team that, like eight others in the SEC, is better on defense than offense. The Commodores have the No. 122-ranked scoring attack per KenPom.com and the 40th-best defense in the country.
That might be surprising given Vanderbilt has the SEC’s top scorer, guard Scotty Pippen Jr., who averages 19.7 points per game. But besides Pippen, only forward Jordan Wright (11.9 ppg) scores in double figures.
Center Liam Robbins has played just six games this season but can be a force at times, although he is averaging just 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. Robbins was off the floor in the final moments of Vanderbilt’s 74-72 loss Tuesday against Alabama in Nashville.
Wright missed a tying layup attempt with six seconds to go as the Commodores fell to the Crimson Tide. It wasn’t the first time Vanderbilt hung around with a superior team, either.
Vandy kept both games with its in-state foe, No. 17 Tennessee, within 10 points and only lost by seven to No. 6 Kentucky at Rupp Arena.
The Commodores even notched some big wins this season, edging BYU by two points in nonconference play before winning by a point at Arkansas in their SEC opener. Vanderbilt also beat LSU by nine points on Feb. 5.
But Vandy was swept by South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee in SEC play in addition to losses to Alabama, Auburn and Florida, adding up to its 6-9 conference record.
The Commodores struggled to score in many of those games, including a paltry 42-point performance Jan. 22 at Florida. Vanderbilt is a below-average shooting team in all regards, including at the foul line.
Of course, Vandy gets to the stripe so often its 69.3 percent free throw shooting rate hardly matters. The Commodores have the fourth-highest free throw to field goal attempt rate in the country. They score 22.7 percent of their points at the line, which ranks ninth nationally.
Pippen alone draws 7.8 fouls per 40 minutes, second only to Wyoming’s Graham Ike. Mississippi State will have to stay in front of the junior guard and avoid getting key players in foul trouble early on.
Pippen scored 18 points in the Commodores’ romp in Starkville last year, but neither Maxwell Evans (20 points) nor Clevon Brown (15) returned this season for Vanderbilt.
That doesn’t mean Vandy isn’t capable of pulling another upset at the Hump, though. And by now, Mississippi State should know enough to be on alert.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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