Mississippi State right-hander Will Bednar is a likely first-round pick when the 2021 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. Sunday.
But where do the rest of the Bulldogs project?
The Dispatch spoke with ESPN Baseball Insider Kiley McDaniel about four MSU players and three prospects likely to hear their names called early in this year’s version of the draft.
Editor’s note: The Dispatch will have more coverage of Mississippi State baseball and the MLB draft, which begins Sunday with Round 1. MLB.com will have coverage of Rounds 2-10 on Monday and Rounds 11-20 on Tuesday.
Current Bulldogs
LHP Christian MacLeod
MLB.com ranking: No. 113
In the fall of 2020 and into early 2021, Christian MacLeod was considered a first-round draft pick, low-90s velocity and analytical separators like the shape of his fastball setting him apart.
But a decrease in speed this spring has cost him that status, McDaniel said.
“I think because the velocity wasn’t there, he wasn’t getting quite the same level of life on his pitches,” McDaniel said. “Because he had to sort of get a little cuter without quite the level of raw stuff he wanted, then the command was more important, and it wasn’t always there.”
That puts MacLeod in a crowded group of “pitchability” left-handers with a track record of success. McDaniel said the southpaw deserves a second- or third-round grade and would lean toward the latter.
“Typically these days, the kind of players who get moved up at the end of the process are guys who finish strong and throw hard, and he doesn’t really do either of those,” he said.
MacLeod struggled throughout the postseason, perhaps a sign he could use some more college seasoning. McDaniel compared him to Ethan Small in his high arm slot and high-spin breaking ball and said returning to Starkville could serve MacLeod well.
“He’s one of those guys that if he comes back and throws harder, he could definitely go higher,” McDaniel said.
OF Tanner Allen
MLB.com ranking: No. 136
Despite being one of the country’s most productive college players, Tanner Allen won’t be at the top of draft boards come Sunday, McDaniel said.
While the Bulldogs right fielder’s hit tool has never been questioned, it’s the other aspects of his game that keep Allen to a fourth- or fifth-round projection.
“You’re getting a high-contact, slam dunk, ‘This guy’s going to hit,’” McDaniel said. “The question is, ‘How much ceiling is there?’”
McDaniel noted Allen doesn’t have a ton of speed or defensive value and would likely be placed in left field or stationed back at first base. At 22, he’s old for the draft class, and past injury concerns coupled with a relative lack of raw power could knock him down draft boards.
According to McDaniel, Allen and Arkansas relief ace Kevin Kopps, who is already 24 years old, are in a similar boat. The certainty they offer could entice a pro club into taking them in the second or third round, giving them a bonus commensurate with the fourth or fifth round in order to save money and sending them straight to High-A or Double-A.
RHP Eric Cerantola
MLB.com ranking: No. 247
Hitting 100 mph and showing a plus breaking ball in the final, Eric Cerantola was in the 30s or 40s of McDaniel’s initial pre-spring rankings. The consensus among scouts at the time was: “Oh, if he just sort of does what we think he’ll do, he’ll go somewhere in the first 50 picks,” McDaniel said.
But Cerantola’s 2021 season did not go as planned.
Starting the year in the Bulldogs’ weekend rotation, the hard-throwing Canadian threw only 17.2 innings all spring, walking 11 batters and allowing 11 runs for a 5.71 ERA despite 24 strikeouts. He had to rely on fastballs late in the count and had trouble finding the strike zone, failing to accrue many swings and misses.
“He was having to pitch backwards while throwing 100, which is obviously a little unusual,” McDaniel said. “If you’re pitching backwards, you have to be able to command your pitches well, and he wasn’t doing that.”
A project pitcher with raw stuff as good as Cerantola offers would be a considerably better prospect at age 18 than age 21, capping the Ontario native’s ceiling at the third round. The fourth through sixth rounds are a more realistic projection, McDaniel said, with a possible high bonus in a double-digit round as well.
McDaniel compared Cerantola’s limited bulk of work at MSU to that of Brandon Woodruff, now an ace with the Milwaukee Brewers. He said if the Canadian — who recently entered the NCAA transfer portal — does come back to college, he could be a first-rounder for another school come 2022.
“He could make money going back to school, but it’s more, ‘What does he want to do at this point? Does he want to try to figure it out in pro ball or figure it out in college?’” McDaniel said.
RHP Parker Stinnett
MLB.com ranking: NR
The Northwest Mississippi Community College transfer isn’t among MLB.com’s top 250 prospects, but McDaniel praised his two above-average to plus pitches and ability to throw strikes.
He projected Stinnett, who profiles as a reliever at the next level, anywhere from the fifth to seventh round.
“If the money’s right for him there, it’s probably low- to maybe mid-six figures,” McDaniel said. “I would imagine he would probably sign if that’s offered.”
Signees
OF James Wood, IMG Academy (Fla.)
MLB.com ranking: No. 44
Bulldogs fans, rejoice: You might just be seeing 6-foot-6 outfielder James Wood stretching out a maroon and white jersey soon enough. McDaniel said the Maryland native, who played at IMG Academy in Florida, could choose not to sign with a professional team and head to Starkville instead.
“I think he’s one of the three or four guys projected in the top two rounds who could actually get to campus,” McDaniel said.
He explained Wood was seen as a mid-first-round pick entering the spring but struggled against strong competition and saw his stock slip by nearly an entire round. That’s a difference of roughly $2.5 million in signing bonus money, which could all but make Wood’s decision for him.
“It’s basically, does he want to take that amount of money or does he want to go to school and try to get to that mid-first-round money again?” McDaniel said.
If Wood takes the latter option, the Bulldogs’ 2022 roster will gain a big-time addition.
LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep (Ala.)
MLB.com ranking: No. 49
From the same high school that brought Tanner Allen to the Bulldogs comes left-hander Maddux Bruns, a 6-foot-2, 210-pound left-hander from Saraland, Alabama. McDaniel said Bruns has the markers of an eventual frontline starter and perhaps the best raw stuff of any high school pitcher, but the lefty’s lack of control so far has been holding him back.
“He’s a guy who may not be able to contribute as a freshman until he can throw more strikes, so he sort of fits the pro game better,” McDaniel said.
He said Bruns is viewed as a second- or third-round talent and will likely receive a signing bonus commensurate with that.
“It’s just sort of his call if he’s comfortable turning pro for that amount of money,” McDaniel said. “If he goes to school and puts it all together, he could be a top-10 overall pick.”
SS Jordan McCants, Catholic (Fla.)
MLB.com ranking: No. 133
A five-tool shortstop from the Pensacola, Florida, area, McCants is a strong athlete who had an up-and-down spring in terms of making contact. He is the brother of current Ole Miss outfielder TJ McCants.
“I think he’s one of those guys who gets offered a pretty healthy six figures later, but I think the belief is he’ll probably end up going to school,” McDaniel said.
Other names to know: IF Slate Alford, Bob Jones (Ala.); IF/OF Aaron Downs, Heritage Academy; LHP Pico Kohn, Chilton County (Ala.)
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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