There’s an old saying that goes when two people are being chased by a bear: A person doesn’t have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the other guy.

That scenario may be playing out in our state university system, if not now, then sometime soon.

Mississippi Senate Bill 2726 calls for the elimination of three of Mississippi’s eight state-supported universities by 2028. The bill says the state will have to decide which three to close by next year.

Let’s be clear. As written, this bill has virtually no chance of becoming law. It’s not even likely to emerge from committee. But often bills are presented to achieve a different purpose. Sometimes, a bill’s purpose is to initiate a dialogue. That happens with a lot of ideas that eventually become law after a few failed efforts.

SB 2726 may serve to establish a negotiating point. A good example of this is a person who is negotiating a salary with a new employer. Let’s say the person wants $60,000. Should he ask for that salary right away? Or is it in his best interest to ask for $70,000? Two things can happen. The employer agrees to $70,000. Or the company makes a counter-offer, maybe $65,000 or $60,000. No matter the outcome the employee has been successful.

If closing three universities is a no-go, perhaps a bill that closes two universities might be considered a fair compromise.

Someday soon, the bear may be on the loose and Mississippi University for Women had better be faster than the other guys.

The current bill says the decision on which universities to close will be based on enrollment, federal aid, tuition rates, degree programs and local economic impact.

For the purpose of this exercise, let’s say you were a consultant from another state with no ties to any of the schools and you are asked to evaluate which of the schools should be closed based on the criteria in the bill.

Where does MUW stand?

Enrollment: MUW has the second lowest enrollment, with just 31 more students than Mississippi Valley State. That puts the W in the bear’s line of sight.

Tuition: The W ranks seventh in tuition costs. The Bear has detected a scent.

Local economic impact: The W is located in Columbus, whose population of 23,640 makes it the fourth largest city among the eight universities. Its population is greater than the cities where Alcorn State (Lorman), Delta State (Cleveland) and Valley State (Itta Bena) combined. The economic impact of a school closure in any of those three towns would be far more devastating than it would be to Columbus. The bear is breathing down the W’s neck.

It’s not all gloom, though. The W’s nursing program might be enough to divert the bear’s attention. The W and Delta State are home to the only four-year nursing programs in the state and the W’s nursing school is broadly considered to be the superior of the state. There’s an enormous demand for nurses, so the W’s nursing school has real value in a way that other programs in the most vulnerable universities do not.

Yet even there, MUW is not out of the woods and free of the bear. Located just 25 miles from Starkville and Mississippi State, it’s conceivable that MSU could take over The W, keep the nursing school and a few programs and shutter the rest. That proximity is no friend to MUW.

Here’s another factor that isn’t listed in the criteria for closing, but could be important: politics. There are 28 women in the Mississippi Legislature. Not one of them is an MUW alum. The local delegation from Columbus and Lowndes County – one senator and three representatives – are rank-and-file members, without tenure or powerful connections. The W doesn’t have a champion.

What it does have, though, is an outspoken alumni base, a group that successfully hounded the legislature to defeat a planned name change for the university.

You can bet that alumni and supporters from Valley State, Delta State and Alcorn State are going to be howling.

A university coming off an ugly fight between the school administration and alumni is not in a good spot. The predator is always looking for wounded prey.

Slim Smith is a columnist and feature writer for The Dispatch. His email address is [email protected].

Slim Smith is a columnist and feature writer for The Dispatch. His email address is [email protected].