In a recent op-ed in The Commercial Dispatch, Sid Salter discussed crime rates, the presidential candidates, and Americans’ fear of crime. I wanted to take this opportunity to discuss why Americans are so fearful of crime – even though crime in the US is at historically low-levels. First, I will give you some information about crime and fear of crime, then I will offer an explanation for the latter.
As Sid Salter pointed out, there are two major sources of crime data in the U.S. – official statistics collected by the FBI and victimization data collected from surveys. Both sources have their strengths and weaknesses, but the most reliable way to study changes in “crime” is to examine homicide data (which, for obvious reasons, is not asked about on surveys). There are two main reasons for this: 1. the definition of homicide tends to be the same no matter where you are in the country (unlike other crimes) and 2. homicide is the crime least likely to be ignored by police and prosecutors.
With that in mind, “crime” in the U.S. was at its highest point between the early-1980s and early-1990s. Beginning in 1993, the U.S. homicide rate declined steadily for the next 20 years: it dropped from 9.5 in 1993 to 4.4 in 2014. Since then, the rate has fluctuated year-to-year but has generally remained lower than at any point between 1967 and 1998.
The exception was 2020-2022 as we dealt with the effects of COVID. However, I am happy to report that in 2023 crime returned pre-COVID levels and 2024 appears to be on pace for a drop that would put us near the record lows of 2014-2015.
Despite crime dropping for 20 years then remaining low over the past 10, fear of crime has been consistently high. Every year since 1996, Gallup has asked Americans whether they thought crime in the country was increasing. More than 60% said it was increasing in 23 out of the 27 years they asked. Remember, crime declined steadily between 1993 and 2014 – yet more than 60% of Americans thought that it was increasing. Why?
Sociologists provide a potential explanation for the differences between crime rates and fear of crime. Social Constructionism is the idea that our view of the world, and what we believe to be true, is shaped by two things: our personal experiences and what we hear from others.
This probably sounds like common sense – because it is. But it is particularly important when talking about crime because most people do not experience it directly. Thankfully, relatively few of us have been assaulted, robbed, burglarized, or murdered. Very few of us have ever been arrested and even fewer have been convicted of a crime or incarcerated.
This means that our view of crime (and the criminal justice system) does not come from direct experience – it comes from what we hear from others: people we know, mass media, the news media, and, to Sid Salter’s point, politicians. In other words, our view of crime is socially constructed. If movies and TV shows are full of crime and violence, we may think it is a common occurrence. If every time we turn on the news we mostly hear about crime and violence, we will think it is happening a lot more often than it actually is.
When we lack direct experience with something, we have no choice but to rely on others for information. But people are less likely to accept what they hear when they are able to “see for themselves.” Gallup also asks people about crime in their area – in general, the percentage of people saying there is more crime “in their area” is about 20 percentage points lower compared to “in the country”. Furthermore, the percentage of people not afraid to walk alone at night within one mile of their house has fluctuated between 60-70 since the mid-1990s.
This is because people are out and about in their community and can see for themselves that crime is not on the rise, much less rampant.
Most of us are not in a position to confirm or deny two of the most common claims about crime – that it is out of control in big cities and that much of it is caused by immigrants/immigration – since we do not live in big cities or cities with large immigrant populations. Instead, we rely on the news sources and/or politicians that we trust. I believe we have a duty as responsible adults, and Americans, to inform ourselves and fact-check the claims we are hearing (or as Slim Smith puts it – do our own research). Until we start doing this, fear of crime will remain high – regardless of what is actually happening in the country.
Dr. Raymond E. Barranco is professor of sociology at Mississippi State University. He earned his Ph.D. in Sociology from Louisiana State University, and his work has been published in multiple criminology and sociology journals.
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