Things are often not as bad as they seem. That’s not just an optimistic outlook, either. In fact, there is a term used in psychology to describe it. The negativity bias is our tendency to register negative stimuli more readily and retain it for longer than positive stimuli.
Negativity bias manifests itself in a number of ways. It’s why we recall insults better than praise, why we think about negative things more often than positive things and respond more strongly to negative events than positive ones.
We are basically Eeyore.
One area where this is almost always true is crime, especially violent crime. It’s one of those things that always seems to be getting worse.
Yet the hard data reveals just the opposite. The rate of violent crime in the U.S. – including murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault – has been going down consistently for at least three decades. Property crime rates have decreased in three of the past four years.
On Monday, the FBI released its quarterly uniform crime report for January through March and the data is truly eye-opening. Violent crime during that quarter decreased by 15.2% compared to the same months in 2023. Murder is down 26.4%. Rape is down 25.7%. Robbery is down 17.8%. Aggravated assault is down 12.5%. Property crime is also down significantly, by 15.1%.
Those figures are even more impressive when you consider that crime continued to go down in 2023. Murders dropped 13% in the last three months of 2023 compared with the same period the year before. Violent crime overall was down 6% when compared to that period.
In his State of the Union address in March, President Joe Biden made a point to note that the nation reported a historically low murder rate in 2023 and violent crime had plummeted to one of the lowest levels in 50 years.
Reverse those numbers – if violent crime was up 15% and murder up 26% – we would definitely notice it.
We’ve seen the same negativity bias when it comes to local crime, especially in Columbus. Periodically, we’ve reported on these false perceptions, most recently in 2019, when Columbus Police Department data showed that violent crime had decreased in four of the previous five years. Those figures were released when complaints about crime were at a high point.
There are some people who seem to find a perverse pleasure in characterizing Columbus as a danger zone. For those people, no data refuting their claims would be convincing. For others, it’s the natural negativity bias at work. Violence is jarring. When we read or hear about a violent crime, it sticks with us and is magnified in our perceptions.
Why does that matter? Because it not only shapes our attitudes about our community, but fails to make note of the hard work of many people – law enforcement, the courts, community organizations, churches, schools and parents. When crime rates fall as precipitously as they are falling now, something very positive, very encouraging is happening.
If only we will allow ourselves to believe it.
The Dispatch Editorial Board is made up of publisher Peter Imes, columnist Slim Smith, managing editor Zack Plair and senior newsroom staff.
You can help your community
Quality, in-depth journalism is essential to a healthy community. The Dispatch brings you the most complete reporting and insightful commentary in the Golden Triangle, but we need your help to continue our efforts. In the past week, our reporters have posted 36 articles to cdispatch.com. Please consider subscribing to our website for only $2.30 per week to help support local journalism and our community.
You can help your community
Quality, in-depth journalism is essential to a healthy community. The Dispatch brings you the most complete reporting and insightful commentary in the Golden Triangle, but we need your help to continue our efforts. In the past week, our reporters have posted 36 articles to cdispatch.com. Please consider subscribing to our website for only $2.30 per week to help support local journalism and our community.
