According to data collected by Open Secrets, incumbents in the U.S. House haven’t had a lower reelection rate than 85.4% over the past 40 years. In the last two cycles, 93.2% of House incumbents were reelected in 2020. In 2022, 96.6% of incumbents returned to office.

Same story in the Senate. In 1986, 75% of incumbents were reelected, a 40-year-low. In 2022, 100% of the incumbents were reelected. In 2024, the rate was 88%.

Leading into the midterm elections, District 16 District Attorney and Columbus native Scott Colom, a Democrat, is taking on incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde Smith.

By most measures, Hyde Smith should be vulnerable. She routinely ranks among the least effective Senators in reports from independent watchdog organizations like GovTrack.us and the Center for Effective Lawmaking. In 2023, she ranked dead last in the Senate for the two-year 118th Congress with none of the six bills she authored receiving any action at all.

In the previous Congress (2020-2022), she introduced the fewest bills among all Senators (in the 4th percentile). She had bipartisan cosponsors on the fewest bills (5 of 16) among Senate Sophomores, and her bills advanced out of committee the least often compared to Senate Sophomores.

She does have one advantage, however, and it is a big one: She is the Republican incumbent candidate in a state where Republicans have dominated elections at every level for the past 20 years.

Colom started from behind, with far less statewide name recognition and a much smaller war chest. Although he raised almost $600,000 since entering the race in early September – a record for any Democrat during a 27-day period, Hyde Smith still has roughly a 4-to-1 advantage in campaign funds.

Colom can’t do much about either of those facts, but he can – and we believe should – address an issue that threatens to become his albatross.

In 2015, Colom’s run for District Attorney was bankrolled by billionaire activist and philanthropist George Soros’ donations to a PAC to benefit Colom.

This year, campaign finance reports show $7,000 campaign donations each from Soros and his son, Alexander. Their donations represent a little more than 2% of Colom’s total contributions, but constitute a serious issue among many of the cross-over Republican voters he needs to win the race.

For more than two decades, Soros, the Hungary-born Jew who survived the Holocaust, has been a major donor to Democratic candidates and liberal causes, although his political spending has declined precipitously in recent years.

In addition to his spending, Soros has been linked to an endless number of political conspiracies that unite antisemitism and Islamophobia. For Republicans/conservatives he is the monster under the bed. Any candidate with an association with Soros, no matter how small, is vulnerable, especially in Mississippi.

It’s a big price to pay for $14,000 in campaign donations.

It is also a problem Colom should have anticipated. Hyde Smith refused to support Colom’s nomination for a U.S. District Court judge position for the Northern District of Mississippi. She cited Soros’ financial support for Colom in the 2015 D.A. race as a reason for her opposition.

Colom should have known any Soros contribution would be a weapon in the hands of Hyde Smith during the Senate race.

He should have returned the donation as soon as it was made. The second best course of action would be to return it now.

Hyde Smith’s campaign is built on dark money, but that does not make her vulnerable in the way that even a small contribution from Soros represents.

Every day Colom doesn’t return that $14,000 is a day Hyde-Smith can use it against him.

Fair or not, the margin for error is razor-thin for Colom.

Putting the Soros contribution to bed is the only smart play.

The Dispatch Editorial Board is made up of publisher Peter Imes, columnist Slim Smith, managing editor Zack Plair and senior newsroom staff.