STARKVILLE — Russia’s threats to invade Ukraine have sent people looking at maps of Eastern Europe. But to understand the implications, it’s probably better to look at a globe, Vasabjit Barnajee said during Monday’s Starkville Rotary Club meeting.

Banerjee, an associate professor of political science and public policy at Mississippi State, said Russian aggression, left unchecked, has worldwide implications not seen since the German takeover of the Sudetenland portions of Czechoslovakia and the forced annexation of Austria in 1938 that were a prelude to World War II.

“This all has a Sudetenland feel to it for those who are familiar with history,” Banerjee said.

In 1938, Germany took possession of the Sudetenland and Austria under the pretense of relieving oppressed Germans living there.

It’s much the same with Russia today, Banerjee said, but the mechanisms that are allowing Russia to aid Russians in Ukraine (17 percent of the population) were deliberately set up with the formation of the Soviet Union in the years after World War II.

“The borders of all these Soviet republics were designed in the 1940s and 1950s to create an interlocking system,” Banerjee said. “Essentially, parts of Russian majority regions were put into states like Ukraine and Georgia to prevent a break-up because you would have loyal concentrations in these areas. The idea was to mix the population in such a way that if they wanted to start ethnic warfare, some would be loyal to Russia. It would give Russia the pretense to act on their behalf.”

While current events may not lead to World War III, the implications are troubling, Banerjee said.

“(Vladimir) Putin has opened a can of worms about territorial integrity,” Banerjee said. “Since 1945, there was a complicit agreement among the powers that territorial boundaries cannot be drawn in blood. There have been exceptions — Pakistan, the Falklands, Yugoslavia. But if Putin opens this can of worms that says ethnic groups can secede, we’re talking about instability we haven’t seen. I’m worried about places like the Congo, where there are multiple claims by multiple groups. China has bigger claims on Taiwan than Russia has on Ukraine. What’s to say Argentina doesn’t invade the Falklands again?

“Frankly, we were promised this would never happen again,” he added. “It’s happening.”

On Monday, Russia announced it has recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent regions, which NATO believes will give the Russians a pretext for military operations in those areas.

“Those are the two primary industrial centers in Ukraine, but really, they’re more like Gary, Indiana, or Cleveland, Ohio, than Silicon Valley,” Banerjee said. “Economically, it doesn’t make sense.”

Banerjee said Russian aggression is more about pride and strategic positioning than anything else.

“Putin is a different kind of Russian leader,” Banerjee said. “He saw (the break-up of the Soviet Union) as a national humiliation. Even he realizes that Russia can no longer be a superpower, but at the same time he doesn’t want Russia to be a gas station like Saudi Arabia. He’s out for leverage. From a political science view, he is just positioning for more Russian power, which is what every country looks to do.”

Putin believes that the perception of a strong Russia, Banerjee said, will enhance Russia’s standing with China as an economic partner.

Banerjee said it’s unsure how the crisis will unfold.

“What can be done? That’s the million dollar question,” he said. “Is Putin amenable to some sort of a solution? What I would like to see is Russia detached from China. If we can peel Russia away from China, somebody has to pay. The books have to balance. The West promises that Putin can stay in power for life and the regime won’t be toppled, that we’ll invest in Russia and get its economy going and we won’t touch you, will he believe that? I don’t have that answer.”

Slim Smith is a columnist and feature writer for The Dispatch. His email address is [email protected].