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Thousands packed the Cotton District on May 3 for the third annual Starkville Derby, where organizers estimated a record-breaking attendance of 80,000, topping a headcount of more than 50,000 at the event last year.
The same day in downtown Columbus, residents and visitors braved the rain to attend the annual Market Street Festival, which has drawn as many as 30,000 people in the past, Main Street Columbus Executive Director Barbara Bigelow told The Dispatch.
But with no tickets sold and no turnstiles at either event, how does anyone count that many people? Is there a method for counting unticketed events? Or is it all just guesswork?
How do organizers and economists estimate festival attendance?
Rachael Carter, a community development specialist with Mississippi State University Extension Service, conducts impact assessments for festivals in the state. When it comes to events without gates or tickets, she said it’s definitely possible to get at least an estimate of how many people attend, but it depends on the resources the community has.
“You can actually have people use crowd counters, like a clicker counter, to count people,” Carter said. “Some communities have access to Placer data, which tracks cell phone pings, and so you can identify … where (that person is) in the area, and then you can also identify whether or not they are a tourist.”
While they may not be as exact, there are simpler ways than using Placer data. Carter said surveys are an easy way to ask visitors how many people are in their party.
“And then another way that you can do it that I tell communities that maybe don’t have a high budget is, you can actually just hand out stickers to people in the crowd,” she said. “A lot of people will take a sticker, and so that way, you know how many that you gave away.”
How reliable are the crowd estimates?
It depends on your method of counting, Carter said, but the number is always an estimate when it comes to unticketed events.
“If you’re using Placer data, you’re going to get a really good estimate, or if you use a model like we do when we count crowds,” she said. “We use samples, and then we determine the amount of crowd turnover per hour, and you can get really close (to the Placer data). … Any of that’s going to be an estimate unless you sell a ticket.”
How is attendance at Market Street measured?
Bigelow said there’s really no way to count how many people come to a festival without tickets.
The annual attendance estimates for Market Street are based on a survey MSU Extension conducted when the festival drew in more than 30,000. Since then, organizers adjust that figure each year based on factors like weather or how long the festival lasts.
“We just say anywhere from this number to this number depending upon the weather,” Bigelow said. “… If we have a Friday evening concert and an all-day (event) Saturday, and it’s gorgeous (weather), and a lot of people come out, we figure we’re at the high end of what their estimate was.”
When the festival isn’t preceded with a Friday concert and the weather is less than desirable, Bigelow said the estimated attendance for that year is likely on the lower end of the range.
Taxes collected from vendors also help determine the festival’s impact each year. While those figures don’t indicate exactly how many people showed up, they give a good idea of the festival’s impact.
“We basically take those numbers (from the Extension survey), and we watch our tax figures,” she said. “We’re able to see not how many people were here, but how much people bought because we see our impact in the area.”
What about the Starkville Derby?
Alden Thornhill, organizer for the Starkville Derby, said the event’s attendance is an estimate based on several factors. Parking lot capacity, cell tower overloads and bus dropoffs throughout the all-day event all help inform “guestimations.”
Input from business owners in the area about customer traffic also factored into the estimate. But it’s really a big guessing game, Thornhill said.
“We go off of social media views and impressions in the area, and then we also go off of foot traffic and food and beverage sales,” he said.
Thornhill said the major contributors to the derby’s growing attendance each year lie in marketing and scheduling. The festival’s social media budget has increased annually to keep up with its spreading reach. He said it also helps to host the derby on a weekend full of other Starkville events, like tournaments at Cornerstone Park and Super Bulldog Weekend. The latter recorded a three-day cumulative attendance of more than 38,000 for a baseball series at Dudy Noble Field the same weekend as the derby.
“Being on Super Bulldog Weekend, with a lot of other stuff going on too. We had the tennis regionals, track event, the State-Ole Miss softball series, in addition to that other stuff,” Thornhill said. “There’s just so much going on in town for our weekend that we were very lucky to have athletics kind of tie us into all of that.”
McRae is a general assignment and education reporter for The Dispatch.
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