STARKVILLE — Mississippi State is in a tailspin.
Midway through a week that’s seen three players leave the program and reports have surfaced that previously suspended running back Kylin Hill is expected to opt out of the season and prepare for the NFL draft, the Bulldogs are set for a date with No. 2 Alabama on Saturday in Tuscaloosa to quell whatever concerns exist in Starkville..
As 31.5-point underdogs according to BetOnline.ag, MSU’s chances at an upset are bleak at best, but a solid showing would go a long way in settling what’s been a rocky ship guided by Mike Leach through four games this year.
WIth that, here’s a look at a three matchups to watch Saturday:
Mississippi State offensive line vs. Dylan Moses
There are quite literally not enough iterations of the word bad to describe the MSU offensive line’s performance against Texas A&M two weeks ago.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Bulldogs graded out at a 37.1 on a 100-point scale in pass blocking and an only marginally better 40.6 in run blocking while allowing the Aggies six sacks and five quarterback hurries. MSU’s quarterbacks, most notably K.J. Costello, have had their issues, but it doesn’t matter who’s under center if the offensive line can’t protect them.
Enter Alabama middle linebacker Dylan Moses. Returning from a season-ending injury he suffered during camp a year ago, Moses ranks as the No. 4-rated tackling linebacker in Power Five football and second-best in the Southeastern Conference according to PFF. He and running mate Christian Harris also sit first and second among SEC linebackers in snap counts through the 2020 season.
Following MSU’s loss to Texas A&M, Leach maligned his offensive line for the mental mistakes that have given teams like the Aggies a persistent ability to get after the quarterback. With a player like Moses, along with Harris and Christopher Allen patrolling the middle of the Alabama defense, they’re in for a stiffer task than they’ve faced all year.
“The quick word is ‘consistency,'” Leach said following the Kentucky loss. “And I know you’re getting tired of hearing it and I’m getting tired of saying it, because however much you’ve heard it, I’ve said it probably a thousand times more than that. But we just have to get consistent. It’s just a grind and a struggle.”
K.J. Costello/Will Rogers vs. Alabama secondary
It remains to be seen which of Costello and Rogers gets the first crack at the Alabama defense Saturday. Leach said Monday that the pair will split No. 1 reps at least through the first few practices this week before he decides on a starter.
That said, whoever does end up under center against the Crimson Tide — and it’s fair to assume both will get a shot — they’ll get a shot against a secondary that ranks the lowest it’s been in the SEC since 2014.
Through five games, Alabama’s pass defense currently sits 11th in the SEC and No. 80 of 101 teams playing this fall. That said, the Crimson Tide have been appreciably better against the pass in home games this season, allowing just 604 yards, five touchdowns and forcing five interceptions compared to the nearly 1,400 yards they’ve surrendered on the road.
Since its season opening win over then-No. 6 LSU, MSU’s passing offense has been atrocious. And while a chunk of that falls on the offensive line, Costello has done little to help his cause following a record-setting performance against the Tigers in Baton Rouge. In the three games since, he’s been benched twice and currently leads the nation with 10 interceptions.
“I think competition is a great thing. It brings out the best in you,” junior wide receiver Austin Williams said when asked about the quarterback competition Tuesday. “A little adversity is always good; it makes you overcome it, and I definitely have seen them both rise to the occasion. I think they’ve both had good weeks. They’re competing hard, and I think I’ve got full faith and confidence in both of them.”
Leach is going to live and die by the passing game, and if Costello or Rogers are ineffective, things could get ugly quickly in Tuscaloosa.
MSU secondary vs. Alabama wide receiver corps
Alabama lost a huge piece to its national championship puzzle when receiver Jaylen Waddle went down with a season-ending ankle injury during last week’s game against Tennessee. However, if recruiting rankings prove anything, the Crimson Tide have plenty of capable options on deck.
Over the past three recruiting classes, Nick Saban and co. have secured signatures from six four-star receivers. Waddle’s injury undoubtedly hurts, but there’s ample talent left to mitigate the loss.
As for MSU, the Bulldogs were dealt a blow of their own when it was revealed by Leach last week that starting safety Fred Peters could miss the rest of the season due to an undisclosed injury. With Peters out, sophomore Collin Duncan likely slides into a starting role, though classmate Shawn Preston Jr. could move over from Bulldog to safety.
Through five games, Alabama ranks third nationally in passing offense. That may see a slight downturn given Waddle’s injury, but the MSU secondary is in for a fight against a slew of top-flight receivers and quarterback Mac Jones.
“The bye’s been just building, taking it day by day, processing, just seizing every opportunity,” sophomore cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. said. “Coming off the bye week we just feel like we’ve got our bodies right. We’re just ready to go to war. We’ve got to turn the season around right now, and it starts Saturday.”
Ben Portnoy reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @bportnoy15.
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