STARKVILLE — It’s winner takes all in the Magnolia State this week as Mississippi State will battle Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thursday night.
As both teams battle through middling seasons, the Thanksgiving Day contest has taken on a renewed importance this season.
The Bulldogs (5-6, 2-5 SEC) sit one game short of bowl eligibility, while the Rebels (4-7, 2-5 SEC) are in line to reach the postseason game should they earn a victory in Starkville based on APR scores.
With that, here are three matchups to watch in the 2019 Egg Bowl:
MSU rush defense vs. Ole Miss quarterback John Rhys Plumlee
While it’s been a slow-developing season for the Rebel offense, freshman quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has breathed new life into the unit.
Plumlee, who started the year backing up Matt Corral, currently sits as the SEC’s sixth-leading rusher with 989 yards and 11 touchdowns despite having played just eight games this season — three fewer than any player ahead of him on the yardage charts.
Just a week ago, the true freshman signal caller torched No. 1 LSU for 212 yards and four touchdowns on 21 carries, marking the fourth time this season he’s run for over 140 yards in a game.
“Tackle him,” Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead quipped of how to slow Plumlee.
While Plumlee has reinvigorated the Ole Miss offense, the MSU rush defense has taken a decided step back from last season. With defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons off to the NFL, the Bulldogs have dropped to No. 62 in rush defense nationally — down from No. 2 a year ago.
Thursday the Bulldogs are expected to have senior defensive tackle Lee Autry and junior linebacker and Starkville native Willie Gay Jr. back in the lineup, as both have been in and out due to suspension. Sophomore safety and West Point product Marcus Murphy should also return.
Given a full complement of players, MSU will at least receive a handful of reinforcements as it attempts to slow Plumlee.
MSU quarterback Tommy Stevens vs. Ole Miss secondary
It’s no secret the MSU passing attack has struggled this season. Whether it be due to injury, poor play, or a mix of both, Penn State import Tommy Stevens has shown limited effectiveness.
Further troubling, neither Stevens nor freshman backup quarterback Garrett Shrader has eclipsed 250 yards in a game this season.
“I can make those (catches) easier on those guys, and I just didn’t do that tonight,” Stevens said following Saturday’s win over Abilene Christian. “But obviously we’re going to have this film to grade and make some adjustments that are going to be needed to win this next game.”
While the Bulldogs have been middling at best through the air this season, the Ole Miss secondary has been susceptible to the pass this season. Entering Thursday, the Rebels rank 122nd of 130 FBS teams in pass defense — the seventh-worst mark of all Power Five conference teams.
Following last week’s win over Abilene Christian, Moorhead said that MSU’s development in the passing game has been “incremental” and inconsistent. If the Bulldogs are to find any success throwing the ball this season, Thursday will be their last chance to show it should they not pull out a victory.
“I think you can’t just run the ball and be one-dimensional,” Moorhead said Monday. “So the pass game is going to have to be a part of this game plan.”
MSU vs. the first quarter
With bowl eligibility on the line coupled with a hated rival coming to town, there should be no lack of motivation within the MSU locker room. That said, the Bulldogs have struggled all year starting games.
Through 11 contests this season, MSU has been outscored 86-48 in the opening 15 minutes of game and rank 94th in the country in first quarter points at just 5.8 per game.
And while the Bulldogs have been opening games, the Rebels have been similarly poor — averaging just 6.7 first-quarter points per game.
“In a game where momentum is going to play a huge key, you don’t want to have the ups and downs,” Moorhead said. “Starting fast, I think, is critical, whether it be the defense with a three-and-out stop and a punt or the offense getting points — three or seven. I think that’ll play critical in a game where emotions are running high.”
Playing under the lights at Davis Wade Stadium before a crowd that should near capacity, MSU needs a fast start Saturday. If not, the Bulldogs may find themselves sitting at home come bowl season.
Ben Portnoy reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @bportnoy15.
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