STARKVILLE — Ever since an 11-0 start, it’s been nothing but frustration for the Mississippi State men’s basketball team.
The Bulldogs have lost eight of their past nine games since their unbeaten beginning to the year, sinking to a paltry 1-7 in Southeastern Conference play. Five of the losses have been by single digits; the past two have been decided on the final possession.
To rally his troops, redshirt senior captain Tolu Smith has been repeating the same message: “Our record doesn’t indicate how good we are.”
“I know that might sound really cliché, but it’s true,” Smith insisted after Wednesday’s 66-63 loss at No. 2 Alabama.
Is Smith right? That remains to be seen.
But as Mississippi State coach Chris Jans said after Wednesday’s game, it “doesn’t matter.”
“We’re not here to have a good showing,” Jans said. “We’re not here to be close. We came here to win.”
Early on, Jans drew fans and praise for doing just that. Mississippi State posted big neutral-site wins against Marquette and Utah during a Thanksgiving week tournament in Fort Myers, Florida. The Bulldogs stifled the Golden Eagles’ No. 1-ranked offense and kept the first 10 teams they faced under 60 points.
But it couldn’t last forever.
After a neutral-site loss to Drake on Dec. 20, Mississippi State lost to two of the conference’s best programs, Alabama and Tennessee. No shame in that.
Then the real heartbreak began.
The Bulldogs haven’t won since Jan. 7 at Ole Miss, but they’ve come darn close in nearly every game. They faded down the stretch at Georgia. They hung around — but nothing more — at Auburn. They were outshot by Tennessee at home. They got too far behind early against Florida.
And Wednesday, Mississippi State squandered an 11-point lead as the Crimson Tide methodically came back and held on to win.
MSU had chances to tie the game in each of its past two games but failed at the buzzer.
“It’s obviously frustrating,” Smith said. “Words can’t really describe how frustrating it is. This is a great opportunity for us, and we didn’t execute.”
NCAA tournament résumé
The Bulldogs are now tied for last place in the SEC, even with Ole Miss and LSU at 1-7 in conference play. Half the teams in the league have losing records in SEC play.
The résumé Mississippi State built in nonconference play is currently falling apart. Once as high as fifth, the Bulldogs are now just 59th in the NCAA’s NET ranking — including a 2-5 mark in Quadrant 1 games and an 0-3 record in Quad 2 contests.
Winning at Alabama (No. 3 in NET) would have been huge for MSU’s NCAA tournament case. TCU, which comes to Starkville at 3 p.m. Saturday for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, is the Bulldogs’ last Quad 1 game until Feb. 11 at Arkansas.
“We’ve got to go to the next one,” Smith said. “TCU’s another big opportunity.”
KenPom.com projects Mississippi State to finish the regular season at 18-13 overall and with a 7-11 SEC mark. At that pace, the Bulldogs would have to make quite a showing in the SEC tournament — if not win it — to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019.
As of Thursday afternoon, MSU is KenPom’s No. 51 team (actually rising in the rankings despite Wednesday’s loss). The Bulldogs were rated No. 46 at the end of last season and earned an NIT bid.
Last season, only four teams below MSU’s current KenPom mark — Notre Dame (No. 52), Creighton (No. 53), Miami (No. 62) and Rutgers (No. 74) earned at-large berths to the Big Dance.
Where State stands
Smith expressed confidence that Mississippi State can make a late-season run should the Bulldogs play like they did Wednesday in Tuscaloosa.
“That’s the No. 2 team in the nation, and we lost by three — a game we should have won,” he said. “If we play like that for 40 minutes, the outcome will be different in most games, in most cases.”
But ever since the start of conference play, the effort has been there and the outcome hasn’t. Instead, it’s been loss after loss after disheartening loss.
“I’m disappointed,” Jans said Wednesday. “Our kids are disappointed. Our staff’s disappointed.”
Ultimately, Smith might be right. Based on its close losses and its statistical profile, Mississippi State is probably better than its record indicates.
But this far into the season, the Bulldogs are nearing the point where they are what their record says they are.
And only breaking their current losing skid will change that.
“We’ve got to get out of it and move on,” Jans said.
Bulldogs to commemorate ‘Game of Change’
Mississippi State will commemorate the 60th anniversary of the “Game of Change” during Saturday’s game against TCU.
On March 15, 1963, MSU’s all-white basketball team snuck out of Mississippi to play a Loyola-Chicago team with four Black starters in the NCAA tournament, a significant step toward racial equality in sports.
“I didn’t know a lot about it until I arrived here,” Jans said Wednesday. “It’s a remarkable story, and it was a historic game for Mississippi State and for college basketball.”
Four of the Bulldogs who played in that game — Doug Hutton, Larry Lee, Aubrey Nichols and Jackie Wofford — will be in attendance Saturday at Humphrey Coliseum. They will be honored at halftime.
Jans said Wednesday he arranged with Mississippi State administration to have the former Bulldogs address or be introduced to his current players if they so desire.
“We’re going to make them feel a part of this particular team,” Jans said.
The Bulldogs’ current players will wear special warm-up shirts commemorating the game, and the first 2,000 fans to arrive will receive Game of Change posters.
The game tips off at 3 p.m. Saturday on ESPN2.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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